NHL Monday best bets: Don't expect fireworks at MSG
We have a rather bland three-game slate on the menu to start the week.
The Maple Leafs and Capitals are heavy home favorites over teams that aren't expected to contend for playoff spots.
Outside of that, we're left with the Panthers - who could be without their best player, Aleksander Barkov - taking on a Rangers team that has dropped three straight games.
Though it's not the most exciting card, there's still some value to be had. Let's dive into our best bets.
Panthers (-125) @ Rangers (+105)
The Panthers are the NHL's highest-scoring team, while the Rangers enter play having conceded six goals in consecutive games.
Considering those trends and the firepower involved in this game, it'd be easy to see people jumping on the over. However, I think the value lies with the under.
New York is struggling to create offense right now. The Rangers' stars haven't been as lethal as we've grown accustomed to and the team just doesn't have quality depth behind them. If the stars aren't scoring, New York isn't scoring - and right now, the team is having a tough time even creating chances.
The Rangers are generating just 1.78 expected goals at five-on-five per 60 over their last five games. That ranks dead last in the NHL.
Believe it or not, the Panthers haven't fared much better. They are creating just 2.0 xG per 60 during that span, which ranks 27th. Barkov's potential absence certainly wouldn't help matters.
Goaltending also figures to be good in this game. While Sergei Bobrovsky - the NHL's leader in goals saved above expected - is not available for this game, Florida is still in solid shape with top prospect Spencer Knight between the pipes. He owns a 4-0-1 record this season and has posted a solid .918 save percentage. Knight isn't your run-of-the-mill backup.
Things look even more promising at the other end. Igor Shesterkin, even after getting torched by the Flames, ranks third in GSAx with +8.5 through nine starts. Put another way, Shesterkin's shaving off nearly a goal more than expected each time out.
With both sides failing to create many looks at five-on-five and the projected starting netminders playing well, this has the makings of a somewhat low-scoring affair.
Bet: Under 5.5 (-110)
Bonus round
Backing a side that has conceded 12 goals in two games is a scary thought, especially against a scorching hot team that has 10 wins in 11 games. But we might just have to do it.
Florida is dealing with a few injuries to key players, including a Sam Bennett absence that has already tested the team's depth at center. If Barkov is out, the Panthers could be in a tough spot, especially on the road without control of matchups.
There is value on the Rangers (+105) at home.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.