NHL weekly betting guide: True moneylines for every game

We discussed how to evaluate a missing player in a one-game situation last week, and days later, it was announced that Nathan MacKinnon would be sidelined. Naturally, the Avalanche destroyed the Canucks in their next game, but MacKinnon being out the next few weeks will add up for Colorado.

I make an 8% adjustment on a player of his caliber (second only to Connor McDavid), which means the Avs are 8% less likely to win any game without him. That adjustment will be put to the test until his return.

The recipe

We provided a three-chapter series on how to use the regular-season point-total market to create team ratings, how to interpret home-ice advantage, and then how to use those to create your own moneylines.

I've taken the advanced stats I value most from those games, the market rating for regular-season win-total markets, and last season's advanced stats to create a rating for each team. I also make adjustments for injuries to key players.

With roughly 17% of the season played, here's how I'm weighing those three factors as of Nov. 15:

Last season's advanced metrics act as a baseline so our numbers aren't drastically skewed by clubs overperforming or underperforming. That includes teams having an uncharacteristically good start (e.g. Red Wings) and teams that are struggling early on, but we expect more from going forward (e.g. Golden Knights).

Next, we use the regular-season point-total market to account for our assessment of these teams before the campaign. We all had the chance to bet the over on the Hurricanes' season point total, but not enough of us did to move that number higher. So let's not overreact to their good start.

All of these teams have played games, though, and that has to mean something. This season's metrics look beyond a team's record to evaluate how that team is playing, so we can see if they might be trending up or down. For example, the Rangers are 9-6 on the moneyline, but the even-strength metrics are concerning going forward. Meanwhile, the Islanders are 5-6, but their five-on-five numbers indicate that they are above average, as usual.

The cheat sheet

The following includes my fair price on the games (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I would need to bet either side. I just need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team that's more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet.

If you're looking at betting a game this week, refer to this chart to see whether or not you're truly getting value with one side or the other. New injuries or lineup issues will naturally arise, but this is a good reference point for identifying whether the side you like actually has value.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.