NHL weekly betting guide: True moneylines for every game

Maybe the head coach matters? Perhaps not always from an Xs and Os standpoint, but at the very least, cleaning house midway through the season seems to grab players' attention. That appears to be what's happening with the Canucks.

Vancouver opened the season 8-17 on the moneyline, with an even-strength xG share of 47.89% and an even-worse 45.18 HDCF% at five-on-five, fifth-worst in the NHL.

Since bringing in Bruce Boudreau to replace Travis Green, the Canucks are 4-0, with a 51.78 xG% and a 52.17 HDCF% at even strength.

Is there a way to account for that predictively? Honestly, other than blind faith, no, there isn't. If you thought the Canucks were 10% more likely to win these games before they were played, you would have bet them and cashed four times last week. However, the Flyers are 2-2 since letting go of Alain Vigneault, and the Canadiens haven't won since cleaning out their front office. In the end, it's all just educated guessing, but if you want to build in a 10% probability bump for a week the next time a head coach gets whacked, it's hard for me to argue.

The recipe

Before the season, we provided a three-chapter series on how to use the regular-season point-total market to create team ratings, how to interpret home-ice advantage, and then how to use those to create your own moneylines.

I've taken the advanced stats I value most from those games, the market rating for regular-season win-total markets, and last season's advanced stats to rate each team. I've also made adjustments for injuries to key players.

With roughly a third of the season played, we can say goodbye to last season's metrics and are now just using pre-season priors via the regular-season point-total markets (60%) and what the teams have done on the ice this season (40%).

The cheat sheet

The following includes my fair price on the games (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I would need to bet either side. I just need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team that's more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. On games that I have projected near a coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough to be a worthwhile wager.

This chart is a good reference to determine whether you're truly getting value betting on one side or the other. However, keep in mind that new injuries or lineup issues will naturally arise, or in the case of the Flames this week, games could even be postponed.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.