Blind items: Which NHLers are behind these intriguing statistics?
Numbers don't tell the whole story in hockey. We know this. But we also know numbers can be intriguing, illustrative, enlightening, and sometimes even fun.
Using data from Hockey Reference and Evolving-Hockey - and borrowing ESPN football writer Bill Barnwell's "blind items" format - we're going to break down notable NHL numbers in a unique way.
In the four sections below, you'll be greeted by a table featuring a bunch of statistics assigned to unnamed players. By the end of each section, you'll understand exactly why these particular stats have been grouped together.
All right, let's have some fun here.
Blind item No. 1
A good place to look for offensive dominance is the primary points leaderboard. A secondary assist can be valuable but not nearly as much as a goal or primary assist. To truly get a feel for the cream of the crop, we'll also exclude special-teams action and focus solely on five-on-five production. After all, it's more impressive to dominate at even strength, right?
This filtration process brings us to the mystery players above.
Player A is Edmonton's Leon Draisaitl in 2019-20. At five-on-five that season, Draisaitl recorded 22 goals and 21 primary assists in 71 games. He went on to win the Hart Trophy as the most valuable player.
Player B is Oilers captain Connor McDavid in 2020-21. At five-on-five that season, McDavid put up 18 goals and 28 primary assists in 56 games. McDavid, the best hockey player on the planet, earned the second MVP award of his career.
Player C is Johnny Gaudreau in 2021-22. At five-on-five this season, Calgary's crafty winger has racked up 14 goals and 26 primary assists in 50 games. Gaudreau's nightly primary points rate (0.80) is better than the 2019-20 Hart winner, mirrors the 2020-21 Hart winner, and paces all 2021-22 NHLers.
Most impressively, the creative and elusive Flames star has a commanding lead in the five-on-five primary points category. As of Friday morning, Gaudreau's 40 is followed by Kirill Kaprizov (32); Nazem Kadri and Matthew Tkachuk (31); Auston Matthews (30); Dylan Larkin (29); and McDavid, Draisaitl, and Alex Ovechkin (28).
Gaudreau, a pending unrestricted free agent, isn't a shoo-in to win the Hart. But he's certainly a contender, with 64 total points (tied for fourth in the league) and strong defensive metrics. Gaudreau, Tkachuk, and center Elias Lindholm are a frightening trio in all three zones of the ice - a gigantic reason the Flames sit atop the Pacific Division and look primed for a deep playoff run.
Blind item No. 2
The goalie statistics above are admittedly unsophisticated, but that's on purpose. History has told us the voting body for the Vezina Trophy - a.k.a NHL general managers - tends to hold all-situations save percentage and all-situations goals-against average, as well as wins, in particularly high regard.
Another goalie stat GMs love: Games started. And in the case of the two players above, workload is a major differentiator. This year, among NHL goalies, Player A is 17th in starts while Player B is tied for 39th.
Player A is Igor Shesterkin, who has started 32 contests for the New York Rangers - 15 more than backup Alexandar Georgiev. Player B is Ville Husso, who's started 18 games for the St. Louis Blues - seven fewer than Jordan Binnington, the main masked man during the club's Stanley Cup run in 2019.
Even though Husso is way below the usual starts threshold for a Vezina contender, this side-by-side comparison complements both goalies.
Shesterkin, who's maintained elite numbers all season despite playing behind a so-so defensive squad, is worthy not only of Vezina buzz but also Hart consideration. The Rangers' skaters are indebted to the 26-year-old Russian.
Husso, meanwhile, is providing by far the best bang-for-your-buck goaltending in the league at a $750,000 cap hit. If the Blues don't ink him to an extension before July, he'll be a hot commodity on the free-agent market.
Blind item No. 3
A fun way to reveal Player C's identity is to first show the others: Player A is Sidney Crosby and Player B is Patrick Kane. There's no denying those are two of the NHL's most prolific playmakers over the past handful of years - and, evidently, so is Florida Panthers winger Jonathan Huberdeau, who is Player C.
Huberdeau, perhaps surprisingly to some, ranks ninth in primary assists per game since 2017-18, the season in which he broke out offensively. Huberdeau's per-game rate (0.47) is just behind Crosby and Kane (0.48) and just ahead of Brad Marchand and Draisaitl (0.46). (For what it's worth, the rest of the top 10 is McDavid at 0.63; Nathan MacKinnon at 0.52; Mitch Marner at 0.51; and Artemi Panarin, Blake Wheeler, and Nikita Kucherov at 0.50.)
What really jumps off the page is Huberdeau's age. At 28, he isn't finished growing as a player. Crosby and Kane have both found extra gears - or, at least, different gears - in their 30s. Why can't Huberdeau? How far up the charts will he rise? And will he also add elements to other parts of his game?
Flashing a mix of speed, smarts, and finesse on a nightly basis year after year, Huberdeau's no longer in Aleksander Barkov's lofty shadow in South Florida. Finally. Yet he's still underrated among the league's fans. If Huberdeau were playing in his native Canada, he'd be a megastar every day of the week.
Blind item No. 4
The numbers above are career stats from five-on-five action only. Player A is Jack Hughes of the New Jersey Devils, and Player B is Quinn Hughes of the Vancouver Canucks. To start, let's contextualize their careers more broadly ...
Based on raw production, 22-year-old Quinn is currently setting the family standard, accumulating 138 points in 178 games as a defenseman (0.78 per game). Jack, 20, has 85 points in 148 games as a forward (0.57).
Keep in mind, Quinn, the seventh overall selection in the 2018 draft, arrived on the scene with far less hype than Jack, the No. 1 pick in 2019. On the surface, then, Quinn has lived up to expectations better than Jack. That dynamic could definitely change in the years to come, but there's no debate right now - especially since Jack's defensive metrics aren't sparkling either.
As for the five-on-five stats, it's interesting to see the brothers line up similarly in the first two categories - both of their teams' shot-attempt differentials are around 51% when they're on the ice, and both brothers are being deployed in offensive roles. And then there's Jack beating Quinn in points per 60, which can be a better measurement than points per game because of differing ice times.
Underlying numbers can sometimes hint that something's bubbling beneath the surface. That, perhaps, it's ice time, quality of linemates, or percentages - not talent - holding a player back. Will we be talking about Jack breaking out next season because he's seeing a bump in ice time, surrounded by more talent, and getting the bounces? Does that five-on-five points rate continue to climb alongside improved power-play production?
The curveball is the third Hughes brother, Luke. The University of Michigan defenseman, picked fourth overall by Jack's Devils last year, is on his way.
John Matisz is theScore's senior NHL writer. Follow John on Twitter (@MatiszJohn) or contact him via email ([email protected]).