NHL weekly betting guide: True moneylines for every game

This is supposed to be a weekly exercise in determining a valuable price for a team we're looking to bet on in each game that week. With NHL rosters a complete mess, however, it's become more of a warning system for lineup lunacy.

At first glance, you might think you're getting the deal of the century on the Seattle Kraken's Monday night visit to the Colorado Avalanche, as the Kraken hover around +325 on the moneyline - a price that's almost 15% higher than it normally would be (around +200). That should set off alarm bells.

A bit of research will tell you Seattle is returning from an eight-day COVID-19 layoff, while the Avalanche seem to have hit their stride lately. The Kraken have lost five straight and already fell 7-3 to Colorado this season, so under normal circumstances, the Kraken only had a 37% chance to win the game. With a probable loss, we may never know how the break truly affected Seattle's win probability.

What we can do is tell you what the true moneyline (without vig) should be and the moneyline price where we would bet each team. After that, any big discrepancy should lead you to do a quick search into why it might exist, and you can adjust how much risk you're willing to take based on your findings.

The recipe

Before the season, we provided a three-chapter series on how to use the regular-season point-total market to create team ratings, how to interpret home-ice advantage, and then how to use those to create your own moneylines.

Three weeks ago, we posted my 2021-22 season ratings, which use the metrics I deem important to predict future success. Considering all this lineup inconsistency, I'm going to continue to use an even 50-50 split between those ratings and the preseason priors via the regular-season point-total markets. This gives me a more consistent base for assessing teams in the future, rather than allowing the numbers to be significantly polluted by COVID-generated mismatches.

The cheat sheet

The following includes my fair price on the games (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I would need to bet either side. I just need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team that's more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. On games that I have projected near a coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough to be a worthwhile wager. Also, I have a 5% win probability consideration for a team playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and 3% without travel.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.