Hart Trophy Power Rankings: Ageless Ovechkin defying the odds

Alex Ovechkin tested positive for COVID-19 earlier this week, but unless that keeps him out long term, he'll still be vying for the Hart Trophy down the stretch.

Edmonton Oilers star Leon Draisaitl, on the other hand, has been in the MVP hunt this season, but he's no longer among the most deserving candidates due to his unspectacular underlying numbers and the superiority of his counterparts.

Here are our top five Hart contenders as we move further into the second half of the campaign:

5. Igor Shesterkin

Shesterkin is pulling away as the Vezina Trophy favorite, and though he's not a top MVP challenger, the New York Rangers goaltender deserves to be on the fringes of the Hart discussion.

Chris Kreider's league-best goal total has obviously helped the Rangers climb to second place in the Metropolitan Division by points percentage, but Shesterkin has kept the club in games it's had no business being in.

New York ranks third-last in the NHL in shots per game and has allowed more shots per contest than over half of the league's teams. Worse yet, the Rangers are last in scoring chances for percentage at five-on-five and have the fourth-worst expected goals for percentage in the same situations. Given those struggles, Shesterkin's excellence is even more commendable.

Despite his club's glaring weaknesses, Shesterkin leads all NHL netminders in goals saved above expected and ranks second in goals saved above average (both at five-on-five). New York wouldn't be a particularly competitive club without the 26-year-old's stellar play.

4. Auston Matthews

Matthews won't get as much Hart consideration as others on this list due to the Toronto Maple Leafs' stable of skilled forwards. But the 24-year-old center has done most of the heavy lifting for his team in 2021-22 and has scored at a ridiculous clip lately.

Matthews has a whopping 22 goals over his last 22 games dating back to Nov. 24, with a seven-game scoring streak at the start of that run. He's tied for third in the Maurice "Rocket" Richard Trophy race, and it's worth noting he's played fewer games than the three players above him.

While all of that is remarkable, what's keeping the American in the MVP picture is his takeover of his team's offense. Matthews has scored nearly 20% of Toronto's goals and notched a point on about one-third of them, tallying 12 more goals and 11 more points than his next-closest teammates.

Matthews also has a 61.97 scoring chances for percentage to go along with his sparkling expected goals for percentage, ranking fourth and third, respectively, among NHL players with at least 400 minutes at five-on-five.

3. Jonathan Huberdeau

Huberdeau has been one of the NHL's preeminent playmakers for years, but he's been historically overlooked in MVP voting thanks to the presence of supremely skilled teammate Aleksander Barkov. The Florida Panthers have a deep supporting cast this season, but Huberdeau can no longer be a Hart Trophy afterthought.

The gifted winger has excelled in 2021-22, and he's proven his worth with Barkov missing over a quarter of Florida's games due to injury. Huberdeau leads the NHL in assists and points at the All-Star break, albeit with more games played than everyone else in the top 10 in both categories. Still, few would have predicted this dominance before the season.

Huberdeau has been the biggest reason for his squad's success and is red-hot since the calendar flipped to 2022, totaling six goals and 20 assists across the last 16 games.

The 28-year-old has 16 more assists and 20 more points than his next-closest teammates. When Barkov was out in November and December, Huberdeau poured in 14 points over eight games. He's also collected 13 of his 17 goals (76%) and 43 of his 64 points (67%) at even strength while posting better underlying numbers than the Panthers captain.

2. Connor McDavid

When the Oilers temporarily fell out of the postseason picture with a seven-game winless streak in December and January, McDavid's status as the season-long Hart Trophy front-runner had to be reconsidered. Then Edmonton reeled off four straight wins and returned to the playoff mix, where it narrowly remains based on points percentage.

McDavid wasn't to blame for the skid, nor did he deserve all of the credit for his team's resurgence. But like it or not, modern Hart voters consider a playoff berth all but mandatory for MVP consideration; with Edmonton's postseason hopes far from certain, the club's Canadian superstar is not yet a lock for the Hart.

McDavid's analytic figures are superior to those of the No. 1 name on this list, but he hasn't carried his team the way Ovechkin has buoyed his. Still, that's not to say the Oilers captain hasn't been his usual dominant self. A deeper look at the 25-year-old's underlying numbers confirms he has, and that's why he's high on this list as usual.

But despite Draisaitl's flaws, the German's immense production hurts McDavid's Hart chances, especially considering how much more Ovechkin has had to do for his squad. And while Ovechkin and the Washington Capitals have struggled by their standards, they're firmly entrenched in fourth place in the Metropolitan Division.

McDavid is still arguably the NHL's most explosive player, and he gives Edmonton a chance to win every game. But the two-time MVP is no longer the top dog in the 2021-22 race.

1. Alex Ovechkin

To say Ovechkin's output at 36 years old remains impressive is a massive understatement. At the most basic level, the prolific winger has been one of the best players in the league in 2021-22. He's among the NHL leaders in goals, points, and average ice time among forwards, leads the league in shots on goal and even-strength goals, and is tied for the lead in even-strength points. The Russian sniper's possession figures are favorable, too.

Then there's his performance relative to that of his team, which is the ultimate indicator of value. He's scored over twice as many goals and 13 more points than his next-closest teammate, Evgeny Kuznetsov. Ovechkin has nearly 100 more shots on goal (213) than his countryman (121), who also sits second among Capitals skaters in that regard.

Those disparities are partly because of a slew of absences due to injuries and COVID-19, but Ovechkin has kept his team afloat when it's been shorthanded, and that's what being the MVP is all about.

Ovechkin had been the only Washington player to suit up for every game in 2021-22 before his positive test forced him to miss Wednesday's contest. The Capitals captain continues to average nearly 22 minutes of ice time, and his workload this season would be his highest since his fourth NHL season in 2008-09. Playing in his 17th campaign and despite his current health setback, the Hart Trophy is Ovechkin's to lose.

(Analytics sources: Natural Stat Trick, Evolving Hockey)