NHL weekly betting guide: True moneylines for every game

On Jan. 14, the visiting Coyotes could be had on the moneyline for as high as +500 against the Avalanche. It was one of the five highest moneyline payouts in the last 20 years. Arizona took a brief third-period lead but lost in a shootout, leaving intrepid underdog bettors just short of a reward for their betting bravery. However, it was a reminder that, even in defeat and at a certain price, there's no such thing as a bad bet.

Sure enough, on the second-to-last night before the All-Star break, the Coyotes returned to Colorado priced at +450 on the moneyline. This time, it took a late game-tying goal for Arizona to force overtime and a subsequent shootout. But unlike three weeks prior, the Coyotes won in a shootout victory. Underdog bettors rejoiced, and there's reason to believe it was a sign of things to come in a season where favorites have won at an unheard-of clip.

The recipe

Before the season, we provided a three-chapter series on how to use the regular-season point-total market to create team ratings, how to interpret home-ice advantage, and how to use that information to create your own moneylines.

When the NHL took its hiatus around Christmas, we shared my 2021-22 season ratings, which use the metrics I deem important to predict future success. Considering all the lineup inconsistency across the league this season, we held firm for the next six weeks, using a 50-50 split between those ratings and the preseason priors via the regular-season point-total markets.

Since the NHL adjusted its COVID-19 testing policies after the All-Star Game, we'll move to a 60-40 split, slowly putting more emphasis on team metrics for this season while not going all-in on what's happened, given how many games have been played with mismatched roster strength.

The cheat sheet

The following includes my fair price on the games (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I'd need to bet either side. I only need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. For games I project to be closer to a coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough for a worthwhile wager. I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a team playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and a 3% consideration for a team on the second leg of a back-to-back without travel.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.