NHL Tuesday player props: 3 forwards to back
We have an appetizing nine-game slate to work with, which means there is plenty of value to comb through in the player prop market.
Let's break down a few of my favorite shot totals.
Mathew Barzal over 2.5 shots (-112)
Most star offensive players generate more shots on home soil, where they generally benefit from last change and softer matchups. Mathew Barzal has served as an exception to the rule.
He is averaging just 2.1 shots per game at home this season and has gone over 2.5 shots just six times in 20 tries (30%). By comparison, Barzal has generated 2.9 shots per game on the road while hitting his total in 11 of 19 tries (58%) - including eight of the last 11.
Barzal is consistently generating high volume on the road and I don't see that changing against the Buffalo Sabres. Put simply, they are a defensive disaster, giving up shots and chances in bulk regardless of the opponent.
In fact, no team has conceded more shots on goal than the Sabres (372) over the last 10 games. Look for Barzal to have another productive shooting night.
Craig Smith over 2.5 shots (-125)
Craig Smith's workload has increased since Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand were removed from the lineup.
He piled up 11 shots through just three games while going over his shot total in each contest, and he's put together successful nights against Eastern Conference contenders like the Carolina Hurricanes and Pittsburgh Penguins.
While the New York Rangers are a strong team overall - they have a lethal power play and Igor Shesterkin is arguably the game's best goaltender right now - they do have flaws. For example, they give up a ton of shot volume. Only Ottawa has conceded shot attempts at a higher clip this season.
Smith is a shoot-first player seeing more ice time in an advantageous matchup. With Bergeron and Marchand still out of the lineup, I expect he'll take advantage.
Jordan Kyrou over 2.5 shots (-139)
Jordan Kyrou is the man right now. He leads the St. Louis Blues in shot attempts, shots on goal, and scoring chances over the last 10 games. That has translated to success on the prop market, as he's gone over 2.5 shots on six of the last nine games.
I like Kyrou's chances of making it seven in 10 on Tuesday against the Ottawa Senators. They are a feisty, competitive team, but they can only do so much with Josh Norris and Drake Batherson out of the lineup. The Senators just can't control the puck or prevent shots as well without two of their best players.
That shows in the numbers: Ottawa sits 27th in shots against per 60 at five-on-five over the last 10 games.
Both sides have consistently played fast-paced, high-event games. There should be plenty of shots to go around, and I expect Kyrou will get his fair share.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.