NHL weekend betting guide: True moneylines for Feb. 21-24

We saw the rarest of occasions Sunday, and it didn't cause the hockey world to go blind. You've heard of the dangers of looking directly at a solar eclipse, but thankfully, you didn't need a reflective apparatus to witness the "loser eclipse" - the Coyotes (13-37 on the moneyline) and the Canadiens (10-40) both won a hockey game on the same day.

On Friday, we discussed the concept of a No Bet List and how Arizona and Montreal showed red flags before the season started. These should keep us away from them - no matter how much value their preseason priors suggest they had with inflated moneyline prices throughout the campaign.

But when do we consider removing teams from a No Bet List?

Bets on Arizona and Montreal will likely continue to show value this season solely because of the astronomical moneyline payouts that sportsbooks assign. The Canadiens have won two straight but required overtime and the shootout. With 10 straight losses prior to that, we're not ready to remove them from the list just yet.

The Coyotes are 3-4 in February and boast moneyline wins of +430 (at Colorado), +190 (at Seattle), and +225 (vs. Dallas). Even blind-betting the team every game this month would earn back roughly +4.5 units. Better yet, according to our guide, only three of its defeats were deemed valuable bets at the time, which would save that bettor a loss along the way.

While Montreal always shows as a bet - even though we've known since the start of the season that it's not - Arizona's had games that fell within our fair price range. When that happens, we have a stable enough rating on a team to trust a moneyline bet that shows as valuable.

Before we bring the Coyotes back into the fold, however, we need to remember that it's less about whether you should make the bet and more about knowing what you're getting into when you do.

The recipe

Before the campaign, we provided a three-chapter series on how to use the regular-season point-total market to create team ratings, how to interpret home-ice advantage, and then how to use those to create your own moneylines.

Two months ago, I posted my 2021-22 season ratings that use the metrics I deem important to predict future success. Since we've gotten through the All-Star break and COVID-19-related roster inconsistencies are fewer and further between, we'll increase the ratio between current season metrics and priors to a 70-30 split.

With our ratings weighted to this season's on-ice product, we can put more emphasis on team metrics without going all-in on what's happened in a still relatively small sample size.

The cheat sheet

The following includes my fair price on the matchups (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I would need to bet either side. I just need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team that's more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. On games that I have projected will be a near coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough to make it a worthwhile wager. I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a side playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and 3% for without travel.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.