NHL weekend betting guide: True moneylines for Feb. 25-27
Valuable NHL underdogs come in various shapes and forms. We've discussed the hapless teams that haven't drawn interest from bettors, but there are some underdogs that come about due to who they're playing.
The Bruins rolled on Monday afternoon against the Avalanche as home underdogs in a holiday matinee, making one wonder how Boston was priced as such, even without the suspended Brad Marchand.
Meanwhile, those willing to take a chance by fading the Maple Leafs this week, against the Canadiens and Blue Jackets, were rewarded when Toronto lost back-to-back games as big road favorites. It's never fun to fade the big team with the famous logo, but there are spots throughout a long season when even the top teams see a dip in form.
In those cases, or with any other reason to back an underdog, we'll use our ratings guide to see if we're getting any implicit value beyond the handicap of the game.
The recipe
Before the campaign, we provided a three-chapter series on how to use the regular-season point-total market to create team ratings, how to interpret home-ice advantage, and then how to use those to create your own moneylines.
Two months ago, I posted my 2021-22 season ratings that use the metrics I deem important to predict future success. Since we've gotten through the All-Star break and COVID-19-related roster inconsistencies are now few and far between, we'll increase the ratio between current season metrics and priors to a 70-30 split.
With our ratings weighted to this season's on-ice product, we can put more emphasis on team metrics without going all-in on what's happened in a still relatively small sample size.
The cheat sheet
The following includes my fair price on the matchups (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I would need to bet either side. I just need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team that's more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. On games that I have projected will be a near coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough to make it a worthwhile wager. I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a side playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and 3% for without travel.
| DATE | GAME | TRUE ML | PRICE TO BET |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb. 25 | CBJ@CAR | +179/-179 | CBJ +215/CAR -172 |
| BUF@STL | +205/-205 | BUF +247/STL -196 | |
| NJD@CHI | +130/-130 | NJD +153/CHI -125 | |
| WPG@COL | +152/-152 | WPG +180/COL -146 | |
| VGK@ARI | -151/+151 | VGK -145/ARI +179 | |
| LAK@ANA | -113/+113 | LAK -109/ANA +133 | |
| Feb. 26 | EDM@FLA | +119/-119 | EDM +139/FLA -114 |
| WSH@PHI | -121/+121 | WSH -116/PHI +142 | |
| NYR@PIT | +113/-113 | NYR +133/PIT -109 | |
| MTL@OTT | +125/-125 | MTL +147/OTT -120 | |
| TBL@NSH | -126/+126 | TBL -121/NSH +148 | |
| TOR@DET | -127/+127 | TOR -122/DET +150 | |
| BOS@SJS | -120/+120 | BOS -115/SJS +141 | |
| COL@VGK | +101/-101 | COL +112/VGK +109 | |
| MIN@CGY | +105/-105 | MIN +116/CGY +106 | |
| NYI@LAK | +110/-110 | NYI +129/LAK -106 | |
| Feb. 27 | EDM@CAR | +105/-105 | EDM +115/CAR +105 |
| BUF@DAL | +197/-197 | BUF +237/DAL -189 | |
| STL@CHI | -101/+101 | STL +109/CHI +112 | |
| WPG@ARI | -127/+127 | WPG -122/ARI +150 | |
| PIT@CBJ | -121/+121 | PIT -116/CBJ +143 | |
| VAN@NYR | +124/-124 | VAN +147/NYR -119 | |
| NYI@ANA | -107/+107 | NYI +103/ANA +119 | |
| SEA@SJS | +104/-104 | SEA +114/SJS +107 |
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.