NHL weekend preview: Bruins to best Sharks
Thursday night was a mixed bag for best bets. We were on the New Jersey Devils at +1.5 goals and they needed no cushion, stomping the Pittsburgh Penguins 6-1.
We were also on the over in Nashville and, well, only two goals were scored inside 65 minutes of hockey. Not great!
Let's finish things off on a high note as we look at the best value for the weekend ahead.
Kings (-115) @ Ducks (-105)
Feb. 25, 10 p.m. EST
The Anaheim Ducks are just two points back of the Los Angeles Kings but, truth be told, I think there's a much wider gap between the two sides.
That shows when going under the hood and looking at which direction each team's underlying profile is trending.
At five-on-five, the Kings have controlled 53.58% of the expected goals over the last 10 games. That is the fifth-highest output in the league, sandwiching them between the Tampa Bay Lightning and Toronto Maple Leafs.
Over that same period of time, Anaheim's share of the expected goals sit at 47.77%. They slot 21st in said category, slotting close to the Detroit Red Wings and San Jose Sharks. Not quite as impressive.
Anaheim, by and large, has been a mediocre five-on-five side all season. John Gibson has simply bailed them out more often than not when not at their best.
Unfortunately for the Ducks, that appears to have taken a toll as Gibson's play is also heading south. He owns a .888 save percentage over the last month and has conceded more than five goals above expected.
The Kings are one of the better shot-generating teams in the league and they're dominating territorially almost every night. If Gibson isn't up to the task, it's hard to see Anaheim winning this game.
Bet: Kings (-115)
Bruins (-167) @ Sharks (+138)
Feb. 26, 10 p.m. EST
The Boston Bruins appear poised for a breakout. Despite middling results over the last 10 games, they have routinely dominated their opponent in terms of chances. In fact, their share of five-on-five chances is seventh-highest in the league over that span.
Those numbers would be impressive at any point. But when you consider the Bruins were forced to play without Brad Marchand for six of those games, the numbers appear even more impressive.
Boston should be able to steamroll the San Jose Sharks at five-on-five. No team has allowed shot attempts, high-danger chances, or expected goals at a higher rate than the Sharks over the last 10. They're in a world of hurt defensively and they don't have the goaltending to compensate.
I expect the Bruins to go into San Jose and make quick work of the Sharks. If you want to play the Bruins in regulation to boost the odds, by all means do so.
Bet: Bruins (-167)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.