Breaking down 3 fascinating Hart Trophy cases in a crowded field
The Hart Trophy has been handed out 16 times in the salary-cap era. Eleven of those winners also won the Art Ross in the same year.
It may seem elementary, but it's true: The player who collects the most points is often crowned the most valuable player in the NHL. Connor McDavid putting up an absurd 105 points in 56 games last season is a prime example.
All of that said, the 2021-22 Hart race feels … different. The list of legitimate contenders is long and diverse enough that the current leader in points - McDavid, who else - is certainly in the conversation but, if ballots were cast this week, he wouldn't be a shoo-in to win his third MVP award.
On Friday, theScore will publish its monthly Hart power rankings.
Here, we're focusing on one player from each position who's enjoying a Hart-caliber season and laying out the cases for and against them winning MVP.
Auston Matthews
Case for: Where to start? Matthews, the sport's best pure goal-scorer, is tied for the NHL lead in goals with 37 in 50 games for the Toronto Maple Leafs. No one has bagged more than 53 in a single season since 2011-12, and Matthews is on pace for 58, which would smash his career high of 47.
Goal-scoring is undeniably the most important and difficult offensive skill in hockey. Super sniper Alex Ovechkin has claimed the Hart three times for this reason, and right now it's the foundation of Matthews' MVP case.
Thanks to 31 assists - 18 primary, 13 secondary - Matthews also ranks in the top five in points; his 68 trail only McDavid (77), Leon Draisaitl (76), and Jonathan Huberdeau (75). Those primary helpers are key, as nobody collects primary points at a rate higher than Matthews' 1.10 per game. (Johnny Gaudreau and Draisaitl, at 1.08 and 1.07 per game, aren't far behind.)
Remarkably, Matthews' oversized value in the offensive zone is being paired with prowess in less glamorous areas of the ice. His two-way dominance - a relatively new development for the 24-year-old center - has vaulted him to the top of Evolving Hockey's Goals Above Replacement leaderboard.
GAR is a catch-all metric "that attempts to assign a total value to each player" by factoring a variety of offensive and defensive inputs. This year, Matthews (21.3), Mikko Rantanen (21.0), Nazem Kadri (18.8), Gaudreau (18.7), McDavid (18.6), and Michael Bunting (18.0), Matthews' linemate, are top of the class.
Additionally, the case for Matthews features six game-winning goals, 59 takeaways, a faceoff win percentage of 58.2, and a five-on-five on-ice expected goals for percentage of 62.0. He currently ranks in the top 10 in all four categories. Also of note, Toronto has rung up a 92-48 advantage in goals when Matthews is on the ice, which translates to a 65% share.
Matthews, to lay it out in simpler fashion, is a game-breaking talent enjoying both a viscerally and intellectually impressive season. And the fact that he logs 20 minutes a night for a Maple Leafs team that boasts the best points percentage in franchise history only strengthens his case for MVP.
Case against: There are a couple of important points to relay here. The first is admittedly a glass-half-empty look ahead, while the second is relevant today.
If Matthews doesn't win the Maurice "Rocket" Richard Trophy (Draisaitl, Chris Kreider, Kyle Connor, and Ovechkin are also already 30-goal men), his candidacy takes a hit - even if he manages to finish in the neighborhood of 50 goals. Because - fair or not - leading the league in something is important to voters.
Matthews' candidacy also takes a hit if his assist rate sags and he ends up sliding down the points leaderboard. (Currently, he's tied with Kadri, one up on Gaudreau, and three up on Rantanen.) Excluding goalie Carey Price, Taylor Hall's 2017-18 Hart is the only instance in the salary-cap era of a player claiming the award despite finishing outside the top five in points.
Of course, it's possible Matthews' elite two-way game makes the above points moot. After all, Hall won the Hart largely due to an otherworldly performance down the stretch, where he willed the New Jersey Devils to a playoff berth. A sensational personal narrative can seduce voters, too.
As for the second important point … well, as detailed below, Igor Shesterkin has arguably been more valuable to the Rangers than Matthews to the Leafs.
Igor Shesterkin
Case for: Generally speaking, the New York Rangers are trending in the right direction on the ice. However, as a middling defensive team that doesn't generate a ton of goals, New York isn't quite ready to contend for a Stanley Cup.
That's a quick summary of the Rangers - if Shesterkin were excluded from the conversation. The reality is, Shesterkin's supreme goaltending has steered New York into a Metropolitan Division playoff spot. The Rangers aren't holding on for dear life, either - their .670 points percentage ranks ninth in the NHL.
Shesterkin, a world-class goalie at just 26, has a fairly comfortable lead in all-situations save percentage (.941), even-strength save percentage (.942), and quality starts percentage (.818). Some context: A goalie has finished with an all-situations save percentage of .940 or higher only three times since the league began tracking the stat in 1955 - Jacques Plante in 1968-69 and 1970-71 and Brian Elliott in 2011-12.
Amazingly, Shesterkin has consistently papered over the Rangers' suspect defense. Evolving Hockey lists Shesterkin as having already saved 34.6 goals above average and 31.0 goals above expected - which is a numerical way of expressing how regularly he's been able to turn should-be goals into saves.
Shesterkin's traditional stats are also noteworthy. He has an outstanding 25-6-3 record and a laughably low 1.95 goals-against average.
While Ville Husso has been a nice story out of St. Louis, the Vezina Trophy is Shesterkin's to lose, and his eye-popping numbers are fueling a compelling Hart case. The trophy's supposed to reward the season's "most valuable" player, and Shesterkin's been immensely valuable to the Rangers.
Case against: 2014-15 Hart winner Price is the lone goalie to win the award in the cap era, and Jose Theodore's 2001-02 run - also in a Montreal Canadiens uniform - is the only other time it happened this century.
The Vezina is considered by many in the hockey world to be the position's MVP award, so goalies rarely garner legitimate Hart buzz, let alone finalist nods. It's ironic, given how integral solid goaltending is to winning hockey games at any level of the sport.
Shesterkin's getting plenty of buzz this time around. If it's a coin-flip scenario between him and a skater, though, most voters would probably be biased toward the skater.
Crease time could also affect Shesterkin's case. He's appeared in 34 of 53 Rangers games thus far, starting 33. That isn't a light workload, but labeling Shesterkin a workhorse would be a stretch when 10 of his peers have played between 250 and 670 minutes more in 2021-22.
To be clear, this isn't a Shesterkin issue - the starter workload has been in decline across the league for several years - but it's a variable in the "most valuable" discussion. He provides no value sitting on the bench for full games.
Cale Makar
Case for: Stacked up against stunning seasons from Matthews and Shesterkin, Makar may seem out of place. The force-of-nature defenseman is a long shot for the Hart, not a frontrunner. Heck, even his candidacy for the Norris Trophy - while strong - isn't bulletproof (see: Hedman, Victor).
Yet there are two unique angles to consider with Makar and the Hart.
First, the Colorado Avalanche blue-liner leads all defensemen in goals (18, on pace for 28). If he keeps this rate, he would have a chance to join an exclusive club - only 17 times in history has a defenseman scored 30 (Mike Green in 2008-09 was the last). He also leads all defensemen in points (58, on pace for 90). At that pace, he could join another exclusive club - only 26 times has a D-man put up 90 (Ray Bourque in 1993-94 was the last).
Voters love rewarding players who hit rare milestones, and what an accomplishment 30 goals or 90 points - or both - would be for the 23-year-old. (As an aside, the Avs have outscored their opposition 109-47 with Makar on the ice. The shot attempt share is almost as lopsided: 1,530-960.)
The second angle is tied to the Avs being Stanley Cup favorites. Do voters gravitate to the best player on the NHL's best team? The Avs, owners of a .778 points percentage, aren't showing any sign of slowing down. If Colorado wins the Presidents' Trophy in convincing fashion, surely its best regular-season performer will get a bump in Hart votes. Makar could be that guy.
Case against: While Makar currently has the strongest Hart case among NHL defensemen, he's climbing an uphill battle versus a handful of forwards (Matthews, McDavid, and Huberdeau to start) and Shesterkin.
Similar to the Vezina and goalies, the Norris is seen as the de facto MVP for defensemen. The most recent Hart winner was Chris Pronger in 1999-00.
The biggest challenge for Makar might be internal competition - Rantanen and Kadri have been equally as impressive in 2021-22. All three could conceivably receive votes for the Hart, splitting the vote.
John Matisz is theScore's senior NHL writer. Follow John on Twitter (@MatiszJohn) or contact him via email ([email protected]).