Hart Trophy Power Rankings: Matthews makes his move

One thing's for certain in the 2021-22 NHL MVP race: the winner won't be unanimous this time around. We're in the midst of one of the most competitive Hart Trophy races in years, and while three candidates have been at the forefront for most of the campaign, several others have built convincing cases of their own.

Calgary Flames star Johnny Gaudreau and Minnesota Wild winger Kirill Kaprizov are on the fringes of the discussion, but those who've led the charge for much of 2021-22 continue to separate themselves from the pack.

Here are our top five Hart contenders as we plunge further into the season's second half:

5. Igor Shesterkin

No goaltender has won this award since Carey Price in 2014-15, but Shesterkin has carried the contending New York Rangers and deserves to be in the conversation.

Without looking at Shesterkin's numbers, one would assume the Rangers have no business being in a playoff spot. New York ranks in the bottom half of the NHL in goals and shots per game, and is also allowing more shots per contest than over half of the league's squads. The Rangers are one of the NHL's best clubs on special teams, but their expected goals for and scoring chances for percentage at five-on-five both sit among the league's worst.

Despite New York's weaknesses, the 26-year-old leads all qualified goalies in save percentage (both in all situations and at five-on-five), and he ranks among the NHL leaders in wins despite playing fewer games than those above him. Shesterkin also leads the league in goals saved above expected at five-on-five and in all situations. He sits atop the NHL by a wide margin in goals saved above average in all situations and ranks second in GSAA at five-on-five.

All of this illustrates how valuable Shesterkin has been. Even though he likely won't be able to convince voters to make him a finalist, his play deserves recognition beyond just the Vezina Trophy.

4. Jonathan Huberdeau

Huberdeau's candidacy has taken a slight hit lately, but by little fault of his own. The Florida Panthers winger leads the NHL in assists this season while notching 22 more helpers and 25 more points than his next-closest teammate. Huberdeau has just one goal since our last edition of these rankings on Feb. 4, but he's added 10 assists across the seven-game span.

The Panthers have plenty of firepower, including two-way wizard Aleksander Barkov. Florida's depth hurts Huberdeau's MVP case, but the 28-year-old carried the club when Barkov was out earlier in the campaign, further demonstrating his importance to this ultra-competitive squad.

Huberdeau likely won't garner as much Hart buzz as those above him on this list due to the trio of players providing superior value.

3. Alex Ovechkin

Ovechkin's production has cooled since he led this race a month ago, but the Washington Capitals captain's season remains remarkable considering he's in his 17th campaign and 36 years old.

The three-time MVP is still in the "Rocket" Richard Trophy hunt, and he's been more versatile than usual in 2021-22. Ovechkin's assists per game rate is his highest since 2010-11 and he ranks third in the NHL in even-strength goals, so he's doing far more than burying one-timers from his office on the power play.

Ovi has amassed 16 more goals and 14 more points than his next-closest teammate, displaying significant value relative to his club. Washington sits fourth in the Metropolitan, but Ovechkin's squad would be in danger of missing the playoffs without his efforts.

His dip in production is also partly due to the fact he's only played eight games over the last month, whereas both of the players ahead of him here have suited up for 13 and 12, respectively. Ovechkin tallied four goals and three assists over that span, which is solid but unspectacular, especially when compared to the top two Hart candidates.

2. Connor McDavid

No one will argue that McDavid is the most gifted player in the NHL, but that's not what this award recognizes. The Edmonton Oilers captain leads the league in points and ranks second in assists, but this isn't the Richard or Art Ross Trophy.

McDavid has excellent underlying numbers, which is partly why he's on the doorstep of the top spot. The 25-year-old's SCF% at five-on-five (55.2) is nearly as good as his xGF%, and he's fourth in the league in goals above replacement.

However, McDavid's bid to repeat as MVP is hurt by Leon Draisaitl's offensive exploits, and unlike last season, the reigning Hart winner isn't piling up points at the historic clip that made him a rare unanimous pick. Draisaitl still has less-than-stellar analytic figures, which show how much of his success is due to McDavid.

McDavid has lit it up lately with six goals and 13 assists over the 13 games since our last edition, but the player ranking No. 1 here scored two more goals in one fewer contest over that span.

1. Auston Matthews

Matthews has been one of the NHL's most potent goal-scorers since coming into the league, but the new dimensions he's added to his game have vaulted him atop the MVP race. The Toronto Maple Leafs center has a realistic shot at winning the "Rocket" Richard Trophy for the second straight year. However, he also has the highest assist per game rate of his career; he can set a career high in helpers with just six more before season's end.

Primary points are a key indicator of a skater's worth, and Matthews has more per game than the others on this list. The Maple Leafs superstar has posted 1.078 goals or primary assists per contest, edging out McDavid (1.055) as well as Ovechkin and Huberdeau (0.963 apiece). This shows Matthews has played a larger role in creating offense.

Even more impressively, the 24-year-old is excelling on the defensive end. Matthews ranks among the league leaders in takeaways and sits atop the NHL in goals above replacement, which assesses a player's all-around value. He trails only Patrice Bergeron in xGF% among skaters with at least 600 minutes played at five-on-five, and ranks third in the league in SCF% among the same group in those situations.

To top it all off, he's been on an absolute tear recently, racking up eight goals and nine assists in the 12 games he's played since our last edition. Toronto has a boatload of skill up front just like Florida, but Matthews' universal prowess and explosive output of late have pushed him ahead of the other contenders.

(Analytics sources: Natural Stat Trick, Evolving Hockey)