NHL Tuesday best bets: Oilers to rebound vs. Flyers
Monday night featured just three games, which meant little value on the board in terms of sides and totals.
We have a much juicer nine-game slate to pick through on Tuesday night. Let's waste no time getting into the best bets.
Devils (+115) @ Blue Jackets (-140)
The Devils own a 4-6-0 record over the last 10 games - but don't let that fool you. By and large, they're playing good hockey.
They have controlled better than 52% of the expected goals at five-on-five, which slots them ahead of teams like the Golden Knights and Hurricanes. They're routinely out-chancing their opponents.
Unsurprisingly, those chances are leading to goals and a lot of them. The Devils have averaged four goals per 60 at five-on-five over the last 10 games. That actually leads the league.
So why has New Jersey lost most of its games over that stretch? Put simply, goaltending. The Devils haven't been able to get a save from anyone but Nico Daws all season. While Daws did start Monday night, I think there's a real chance he goes again in this game. Even if he doesn't, I still see enough for New Jersey to take out this Blue Jackets team.
They can't defend a lick right now. At five-on-five, they rank 29th in expected goals against per 60 over the last 10. That spells trouble against this red-hot New Jersey offense, especially considering the goaltending Columbus has had of late.
Projected starter Elvis Merzlikins owns an .893 save percentage since the calendar flipped to 2022. With the way he's playing right now, the Jackets might not even have a goaltending edge against a Devils team missing its No. 1 and No. 2 netminders.
Back-to-back situation or not, I think the wrong team is favored here.
Bet: Devils (+115)
Oilers (-160) @ Flyers (+135)
The Oilers are a little thinned out right now. With Jesse Puljujarvi, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, and Kailer Yamamoto all sidelined, they just don't have a lot of depth up front.
Even so, I like Edmonton to rebound with a win in this spot. Its share of the expected goals is 6% higher than the Flyers' over the last 10 games. They should be able to control the run of play.
They should also do real damage on the power play. Edmonton is lethal on the man advantage, and Philadelphia is putrid on the penalty kill. Only the Ducks have conceded shot attempts at a higher rate over the last 10, while no team has given up more power-play goals per 60 minutes than the Flyers.
I expect the Oilers to keep things relatively even at five-on-five - if not win outright - while causing all kinds of problems on the man advantage.
Bet: Oilers in regulation (-110)
Flames (-118) @ Wild (-104)
These teams combined for 10 goals the last time they met, but I think this contest is going to be played a little closer to the vest.
If we isolate the last 10 games, the Flames and Wild are two of the best defensive sides in the NHL. Calgary has conceded fewer expected goals (2.06 per 60) at five-on-five than every team during that period.
The Wild are not far behind. They've given up 2.25 expected goals per 60, which slots them fifth during the same span. Pretty good!
Both teams also rank top-seven in limiting high-danger chances. It's not as if they're limiting total chances, but a lot of what they give up isn't high quality. Teams just aren't creating many great looks against either side.
Now, these teams do possess the firepower necessary to blow any game open, but I don't think the Wild will do that against a potential Vezina finalist in Jacob Markstrom.
While Cam Talbot's recent form is concerning, he has been a quality starter for some time. There's reason to expect more from him moving forward. And, quite frankly, if he struggles, there's enough wiggle room with a 6.5 total that we could still get there.
Bet: Under 6.5 (-108)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.