NHL Wednesday best bets: Predators to pounce on slumping Kraken
After a busy Tuesday, we have just four games on the docket for Wednesday's slate.
Luckily, I still see plenty of value on the board. Let's comb through it.
Predators (-175) @ Kraken (+145)
The Kraken enter Wednesday night's game against the Predators in the midst of a seven-game losing streak. I think that will extend to eight.
Seattle is an absolute disaster right now, routinely getting outplayed by significant margins. The Kraken have controlled just 44.77% of the expected goals at five-on-five over the last 10 games, ranking 30th in the NHL.
They're not generating any chances, and the ones they do create rarely end up in the back of the net - especially without leading scorer Jared McCann.
Meanwhile, Philipp Grubauer still can't make saves with any consistency. He ranks dead last in the league - by a lot - in Goals Saved Above Expectation (-30.2).
In short, the Kraken aren't creating much, are allowing plenty, and can't rely on a save to bail them out.
Although Nashville's five-on-five numbers aren't overly impressive of late, they should spend a lot of this game on the attack. The Preds also figure to have a big edge in goal with Juuse Saros, who slots behind only Igor Shesterkin, Frederik Andersen, and Andrei Vasilevskiy in GSAE this season.
Bet: Predators in regulation (-110)
Sabres (+325) @ Maple Leafs (-420)
The Maple Leafs are likely going to dismantle the Sabres in tonight's game. Unfortunately, that is reflected in the odds. There isn't much value in backing Toronto, even on the puck line. That's why I'm getting creative.
I think the Maple Leafs will come out hot and win the first period. They are one of the league's best sides in terms of starting on time. Only the Panthers (68) have scored more first-period goals than the Maple Leafs (65).
By comparison, the Sabres have only netted 40 first-period goals. That slots them 23rd, and they're actually a little lower in terms of first-period goals per game.
They struggle to generate offense until they're already playing from behind. It generally doesn't take long for them to fall behind, either, as only the Canadiens (63) have conceded more opening-period goals than the Sabres (61).
Toronto is firmly in the mix for a division title. If they're going to beat out Florida and the Lightning, they can't afford to drop points in advantageous spots. They know that, and I expect that to show in their play early on.
Bet: Maple Leafs -0.5 1st period (-125)
Mark Giordano over 2.5 shots (+110)
I love Giordano in this spot because the Predators have given up a lot of shots of late. They've conceded 350 over the last 10 games, which is more than all but the Coyotes and Blue Jackets.
They're a team we can target with shooters right now, and Giordano is the best choice here. He has attempted 61 shots over the last 10, which is 15 clear of his next closest teammate.
Making Giordano even more appealing is his prowess on home soil. He's piled up at least three shots in 59% of Seattle's home games, including seven of the last 10.
The odds imply Giordano has a 47.5% chance of going over. Considering the sneaky good matchup and his encouraging home numbers, I see real value in backing him.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.