NHL weekend betting guide: True moneylines for March 5-7

Value is created in sports betting when other bettors want nothing to do with betting on, or betting against, a team. Prior to the NHL All-Star break, that situation occurred regularly as clubs played with compromised lineups, and oddsmakers couldn't price the favorite low enough.

My, how the tables have turned. In the last four days alone, the positive expected value from the games listed in this space Monday has rolled to an 8-3 record. The real story is in the net gains from swallowing hard and betting on the teams no one else wants.

Those eight wins provided 16.55 units to the positive. After the three losses get deducted from the ledger, a four-day boon of +13.55 may have hit your account.

Is there luck involved with an 8-3 record? Like most NHL game results, yes. The plays above went 2-0 in overtime, which resulted in a swing of 7.2 units to the positive. However, two of the three losses saw our underdog hold the lead going into the second intermission, so they were certainly live to win the game at a valuable price.

The recipe

Before the 2021-22 campaign, we provided a three-chapter series on how to use the regular-season point-total market to create team ratings, how to interpret home-ice advantage, and then how to use those to create your own moneylines.

With good results after the All-Star break for our underdogs - gaining nearly 20 units despite a 42-54 record - we'll maintain our weight distribution for our ratings using 70% of this season's metrics with 30% weighted for preseason priors.

With our ratings weighted to this season's on-ice product, we can put more emphasis on team metrics without going all-in on what's happened in a still relatively small sample size that contains some tainted results.

The cheat sheet

The following includes my fair price on the matchups (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I would need to bet either side. I just need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team that's more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. On games that I have projected will be a near coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough to make it a worthwhile wager. I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a side playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and 3% for without travel.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.