NHL weekend betting guide: True moneylines for March 11-13

Beyond the frustrations of a speeding, oddly shaped rubber bullet bouncing off of a series of surfaces at a variety of angles and haphazardly finding its way into a 4-by-6 cage, hockey betting is a night-to-night roller coaster.

According to our value-based betting guide, four teams showed value as underdogs Monday. They all lost; 0-4, -4 units.

Tuesday's massive slate showed six teams worth betting on. Five of them won; 5-1, +6.45 units.

It would be easier on our blood pressure if +2.45 units over two days was a little more evenly distributed, but such is life when betting a moneyline-centric sport.

The Blackhawks (-130) were one of those winners Tuesday. The Oilers (-125) followed suit Wednesday as a rare favorite worth betting from a value standpoint.

Why is it so rare to see sportsbooks provide value on a favorite? Well, because they usually don't have to. Bettors are fine with lining up on Alex Ovechkin and the Capitals even in the second night of a back-to-back in Edmonton. They're content with getting plus-money on the plucky Ducks against the woeful Blackhawks.

As we turn our attention to the weekend, our search for value isn't defined by whether there's a plus or minus sign in front of a teams' odds. It's about how that implied probability compares to our valuations of each team.

The recipe

Before the 2021-22 campaign, we devised a three-part series on how to use the regular-season point-total market to create team ratings, how to interpret home-ice advantage, and then how to use those to create your own moneylines.

We made a small adjustment to our formula this week, moving this season's on-ice predictive metrics to 75% of our total rating. While our ratings are weighted to this season, basing 25% of the ratings on preseason "priors" allows us to place more emphasis on team metrics without going all-in on what's happened this year. That's important because this season is still a relatively small sample size that includes some tainted results from when COVID-19 ravaged lineups.

The cheat sheet

What follows is my fair price on the matchups (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I would need to bet either side. I just need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. On games I've projected to be a near coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough to make it a worthwhile wager. I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a side playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and 3% for without travel.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.