NHL weekend betting guide: True moneylines for March 25-27

There were a lot of bags packed and Ubers to the airport ready to go Monday. The NHL trade deadline came and went with veterans Marc-Andre Fleury and Mark Giordano as the big buys, while general managers bid wildly for Rickard Rakell, Artturi Lehkonen, and Marcus Johansson.

Did the buzz of the deadline have anything to do with favorites going 4-0 on Monday? We may never know. However, when the dust settled, our collection of valuable bets stormed back for an epic week. The Sharks, Sabres, Canucks, Flyers, and Senators all won at +200 or better.

Meanwhile, if you found the widely available prices on the Kings (-120 vs. the Predators), Bruins (-110 vs. the Lightning), and Golden Knights (-115 vs. Nashville), you took advantage of the continuing run of rare valuable favorites on our list.

Whether Monday's acquisitions are what created an overreaction in the market - or whether we can attribute success to random variance - remains to be seen. However, the highs and lows of betting on hockey remain the same, even if a few players of varying degrees of impact change locations and colors.

The recipe

Before the 2021-22 campaign, we devised a three-part series on how to use the regular-season point-total market to create team ratings, how to interpret home-ice advantage, and then how to use those to create your own moneylines.

We're due for a tweak to our formula following the deadline. We'll take this opportunity to move this season's on-ice predictive metrics to 80% of our total rating. While our ratings are weighted to this season, basing 20% of the ratings on preseason "priors" allows us to emphasize team metrics without going all-in on what's happened during this elastic campaign. Of course, we still have a relatively small sample size that includes some tainted results from when COVID-19 ravaged lineups.

The stabilization of rosters at the All-Star break has meant that underdogs, or teams that aren't favored by enough, are now priced that way due to less quantifiable reasons, like public perception or short-term variance.

The cheat sheet

What follows is my fair price on the matchups (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I would need to bet either side. I just need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. On games I've projected to be a near coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough to make it a worthwhile wager. I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a side playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and 3% for without travel.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.