Hart Trophy Power Rankings: American stars leading the charge

The Hart Trophy race has featured a crowded field for much of this NHL campaign. But as the league nears the end of the regular season, the MVP chase is now more competitive than it's been throughout 2021-22.

Jonathan Huberdeau and Cale Makar warrant some consideration. However, they haven't been as critical to their ultra-deep teams' success as the players on this list. Alex Ovechkin was in the mix all season long until recently, as his contributions have diminished along with his ice time in the second half.

Here are our top five Hart candidates as we approach the playoffs, with a pair of American dynamos at the forefront:

5. Roman Josi

Makar is the Norris Trophy favorite over Josi, but - as noted in our Norris rankings - the Nashville Predators defenseman deserves more Hart consideration because he's provided superior value. His team would be lost without him.

Josi is on a ridiculous tear from a production standpoint, and he has a legitimate shot at cracking 100 points this season. A blue-liner's done that only 14 times in NHL history and a rearguard hasn't completed the feat since 1991-92. Even if he's not a front-runner, it'll be difficult to exclude Nashville's captain from the MVP discussion if he hits that benchmark.

The 31-year-old is doing more than just piling up points, too. He's among the league leaders in average ice time. Josi has done a good chunk of his damage on the power play, but his five-on-five numbers are commendable considering his heavy workload. The Swiss veteran boasts favorable expected goals for, scoring chances for, and expected goals against percentages.

Josi has notched a point on more than one-third of the Predators' goals in 2021-22 (37.7%), and he leads all Nashville skaters in assists and points by wide margins. All of these numbers illustrate how important Josi has been to his team's success. The Preds wouldn't be battling for a playoff spot if not for his performance, especially lately.

4. Igor Shesterkin

Shesterkin declined a bit since our last edition, but the New York Rangers goaltender still deserves consideration for more than just the Vezina Trophy.

We've previously talked at length about why he belongs in the MVP conversation, and those reasons still apply. He's excelling despite the Rangers' inability to control the share of scoring chances and expected goals at five-on-five and their reliance on an elite power play.

The netminder allowed at least four goals in a game three times in March after not letting that happen once since Dec. 29. However, he still holds a .918 save percentage in the 12 contests since our last edition, and his season-long numbers speak for themselves.

Shesterkin leads the entire NHL - including skaters - in wins above replacement and tops every netminder in GSAA in all situations (36.88) by a ridiculous margin of 12.36. Aside from Chris Kreider's unexpected offensive explosion, Shesterkin's rock-solid play is why the Rangers are a surprise contender.

3. Connor McDavid

McDavid is still a prime candidate to claim the Hart for several reasons. The Edmonton Oilers captain sits on top of the league in the Art Ross Trophy race and leads all skaters in points per contest. He also boasts a 15-game point streak in which he's racked up 29 since March 9.

The 25-year-old has registered at least a point on 43.2% of the Oilers' goals, exceeding the other three skaters on this list. McDavid also has a superior primary points per game rate (1.169) than two of those three counterparts, and he ranks among the NHL leaders in both even-strength goals and even-strength points.

Production isn't everything, and the 25-year-old continues to prove his worth in other areas. As usual, McDavid possesses excellent underlying numbers with superb xGF% and SCF% figures. The reigning MVP also ranks among the game's best skaters in both WAR and GAR. Those trends reinforce his overall value.

Leon Draisaitl's gaudy offensive numbers could dissuade some voters from taking McDavid, but the two-time winner deserves to remain firmly in contention regardless of his teammate's output.

2. Johnny Gaudreau

Gaudreau's line has been one of the NHL's best, but the Calgary Flames star is providing ample evidence that he deserves MVP buzz for his personal exploits.

The 28-year-old American is among the league's points leaders, but his contributions go far beyond that. Gaudreau leads the NHL in even-strength points by nine, and his total in those situations (78) accounts for a remarkable 78.8% of his output.

While McDavid's performance and workload are impressive, Gaudreau's production is even more notable considering he gets far less ice time - an average that ranks 80th among forwards.

The gifted Flames winger's underlying numbers are also stellar. In addition to his favorable possession figures, Gaudreau sits second in the NHL in both WAR and GAR.

1. Auston Matthews

Matthews is dominating at both ends of the ice to a greater degree than any other NHL player this season, leaving no doubt that he remains the most valuable. The Toronto Maple Leafs superstar is on track to repeat as the "Rocket" Richard Trophy winner, and he's amassed his impressive goal total in fewer games than any of the others in the hunt.

Matthews became the first player since Mario Lemieux in 1995-96 to net 46 goals over 47 regular-season contests. He's also averaging the most goals per game (0.85) by anyone since Lemieux's pristine mark of 0.99 in that same campaign, and he set two other records Thursday night.

Matthews leads the NHL in even-strength goals by eight and ranks second in even-strength points. And the 24-year-old has more primary points per game (1.227) than any skater on this list.

His underlying numbers show he's far more than just an ultra-potent scorer in 2021-22. Matthews leads all NHL skaters in WAR, GAR, expected wins above replacement, and expected goals above replacement. Only Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand hold higher xGF% rates at five-on-five among those who've played at least 700 minutes in those situations, and Matthews has logged nearly 300 more minutes than both of them.

The Toronto center sits second only to Bergeron in SCF% with that same criteria. Matthews has also been a puck-stealing machine. He ranks first among NHL forwards and second overall in total takeaways, as well as second in takeaways per 60 minutes among skaters who've played at least 50 games.

(Analytics sources: Natural Stat Trick, Evolving Hockey)