NHL Monday best bets: Hurricanes to best Capitals
We ended last week on a pretty good note, pushing an under while winning the other bet in the weekend preview.
We'll look to go another night without a loss as we dive into Monday's best bets.
Hurricanes (-130) @ Capitals (+110)
The Carolina Hurricanes are poised to go on a run sooner than later. At five-on-five over the last 10 games, the Hurricanes have controlled 59% of the shot attempts, 59% of the expected goals, and 61% of the high-danger chances. They rank at or near the top of the league in each category.
The Washington Capitals have a more impressive 7-2-1 record over the same period, but their underlying metrics don't hold a candle. They've controlled 48% of the shot attempts, 48% of the xG, and 47% of the high-danger chances, slotting in the bottom half of the NHL across the board.
The difference between the two? Simply put, finishing. Carolina has scored on just 5% of its five-on-five shots in its last 10 games, besting only the Los Angeles Kings in conversion rate during that spell. Meanwhile, Washington netted better than 9% of their shots and scored more power-play goals than all but three teams.
The Capitals have long out-performed expectations in terms of finishing rate, while the Hurricanes have consistently underperformed. Even so, the contrast we've seen over the last few weeks is too drastic. If Carolina continues to dominate the run of play, it's only a matter of time before the team gets rewarded.
The Hurricanes should get the better of the Capitals at five-on-five, and they're as equipped as anybody to slow down that potent power play. I expect Carolina to best Washington on Monday and pick up its first win of the season against its division rivals.
Bet: Hurricanes (-130)
Kraken (+175) @ Kings (-210)
The Seattle Kraken and L.A. met a couple of days ago. The Kings came through with a 4-2 regulation victory at home, and I'm expecting a similar result this time around.
Los Angeles has continued to chug along despite all the injuries. The Kings have collected at least a point in seven of their last 10 games. They've posted solid five-on-five numbers over that time, controlling nearly 56% of the shot attempts and almost 53% of the expected goals.
Seattle has a decent five-on-five profile over the same period, but it lags well behind L.A. in shot attempts and expected goals. The Kings should get the better of play at full strength.
They also look to have a significant edge in special teams, particularly while up a man. The Kraken are having a heck of a time killing penalties right now, ranking 26th in expected goals against per 60 minutes and 31st in goals against per 60 over the last 10 contests.
I don't think the game will be overly high scoring, but the Kings should take care of business inside regulation.
Bet: Kings in regulation (-127)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.