NHL daily betting guide: Opening moneyline projections for April 5
On Friday, we dug into our predictive power ratings for every NHL team without any preconceived notions that hockey enthusiasts would all agree on every team's placement. That's just not how sports fandom is built.
On Dec. 21, after the NHL extended their shutdown through the holiday break, we took the opportunity to review our own situation - putting the teams in order of how we expected them to perform going forward.
Below is a list of every team's moneyline record before Dec. 21, our rating at the time, and their betting record since.
| TEAM | RECORD (-Dec. 25) | RATING | RECORD (Dec. 25-) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 18-11 | 1.17 | 30-10 |
| Lightning | 20-10 | 1.14 | 23-15 |
| Wild | 19-11 | 1.12 | 23-14 |
| Maple Leafs | 20-10 | 1.11 | 24-14 |
| Oilers | 18-11 | 1.10 | 21-19 |
| Capitals | 18-13 | 1.08 | 19-18 |
| Flames | 15-13 | 1.08 | 25-15 |
| Kings | 14-16 | 1.08 | 24-17 |
| Avalanche | 17-10 | 1.07 | 32-10 |
| Penguins | 17-13 | 1.07 | 24-16 |
| Bruins | 14-12 | 1.05 | 29-13 |
| Stars | 15-14 | 1.04 | 24-14 |
| Golden Knights | 20-12 | 1.04 | 18-20 |
| Jets | 14-16 | 1.04 | 19-21 |
| Hurricanes | 21-8 | 1.03 | 24-16 |
| Predators | 19-11 | 1.03 | 20-18 |
| Blue Jackets | 14-14 | .99 | 18-23 |
| Rangers | 19-11 | .98 | 25-14 |
| Devils | 10-20 | .98 | 14-25 |
| Canucks | 14-17 | .98 | 18-20 |
| Ducks | 17-15 | .97 | 11-27 |
| Blues | 17-14 | .96 | 21-16 |
| Sharks | 15-15 | .96 | 14-24 |
| Red Wings | 15-16 | .95 | 11-27 |
| Flyers | 12-17 | .92 | 9-30 |
| Islanders | 8-18 | .92 | 24-18 |
| Sabres | 10-20 | .88 | 15-25 |
| Kraken | 10-20 | .87 | 11-27 |
| Senators | 9-19 | .84 | 16-24 |
| Coyotes | 6-23 | .83 | 15-24 |
| Blackhawks | 11-19 | .82 | 13-26 |
| Canadiens | 7-24 | .81 | 12-26 |
Placing the Panthers atop the ratings in December was validated by their record since Christmas. The numbers suggested they were better than their record indicated, and they were. The Flames and Kings were around .500, but the numbers predicted their improvement, and now they are securely in a playoff spot.
Conversely, our predictive metrics suggested tempering expectations about the hot starts from the Hurricanes, Golden Knights, and Predators. Elsewhere in the middle of the pack, an educated guess suggested a bigger sample size might be needed to accurately define teams like the Rangers, Devils, and Blues.
Near the bottom of the standings, the numbers gave hope that the Coyotes, Canadiens, and Senators weren't as bad as their record suggested. While their talent is clearly limited, their records now better reflect their on-ice performance.
The recipe
Before the 2021-22 campaign, we devised a three-part series on how to use the regular-season point-total market to create team ratings, how to interpret home-ice advantage, and then how to use those to create your own moneylines.
This season's on-ice predictive metrics make up 85% of our total rating. Basing 15% of the ratings on preseason "priors" allows us to emphasize team metrics without going all-in on what's happened this season, which includes some tainted results from when COVID-19 ravaged lineups.
I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a side playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and 3% without travel.
How to use the guide
What follows is my fair price on the matchups (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I would need to bet each side. I just need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. You can establish your own threshold. For bigger underdogs, you may decide on a higher cutoff, like 6%-7%. On games that I've projected to be a near coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough to make it a worthwhile wager.
April 5
| GAME | WIN PROB. (%) | TRUE ML | PRICE TO BET |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ@PHI | 40.9/59.1 | +145/-145 | CBJ +171/PHI -139 |
| COL@PIT | 49.9/50.1 | +100/+100 | COL +110/PIT +110 |
| CAR@BUF | 53.8/46.2 | -116/+116 | CAR -112/BUF +137 |
| NYR@NJD | 48.3/51.7 | +107/-107 | NYR +118/NJD +103 |
| OTT@MTL | 48.5/51.5 | +106/-106 | OTT +117/MTL +104 |
| TOR@FLA | 38.6/61.4 | +159/-159 | TOR +189/FLA -153 |
| BOS@DET | 51.2/48.8 | -105/+105 | BOS +105/DET +116 |
| MIN@NSH | 50.5/49.5 | -102/+102 | MIN +109/NSH +113 |
| NYI@DAL | 44.4/56.6 | +125/-125 | NYI +147/DAL -120 |
| EDM@SJS | 56.7/43.3 | -131/+131 | EDM -126/SJS +154 |
Compare the "Price to bet" column with the best prices offered by the market. From there, compile a list of bets. The only reason not to make a bet is if something isn't accounted for in how we've rated teams - like a star player missing out - or if you've put a team on the "Do not bet" list.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.