Norris Trophy odds update: Roman Josi or Cale Makar?

With less than three weeks remaining in the 2021-22 NHL regular season, the Norris Trophy - much like the Hart Trophy - has turned into somewhat of a two-horse race.

Which player should - or will - prevail when all is said and done? Let's dive in.

Only listing players with odds 75-1 or shorter.

Roman Josi has emerged as the ever-so-slight favorite on the back of an absolutely absurd run of production.

The 31-year-old rearguard piled up 59 points in 40 games since the calendar flipped. Forget his rank among defensemen - Josi sits one back of Jonathan Huberdeau for the league lead in assists in that period. He ranks seventh in total points in 2022, behind only Mitch Marner, Auston Matthews, Johnny Gaudreau, Matthew Tkachuk, Aleksander Barkov, and Huberdeau.

That remarkable production in the midst of the playoff race has opened a lot of eyes league-wide. Josi's underlying numbers also paint a bright picture. The Nashville Predators control 4.62% more of the shot attempts with him on the ice at five-on-five - that leads the team in 2022. Josi also has a plus-15 goal differential in that game state while playing a ton of minutes. There's a reason for the hype.

Despite all that, I think Cale Makar is more deserving of the Norris, and there are a few reasons why.

We'll start with competition: Makar plays more difficult minutes, with nearly 35% of his ice time coming against elite competition, per PuckIQ. Josi only spends around 28% of his time against top-tier players. That's a pretty big gap.

Despite handling a more difficult workload, Makar's on-ice impact is stronger. While the Colorado Avalanche are a great team, Makar elevates their play when he's on the ice, boosting their share of the expected goals by around 8%.

By comparison, Josi increases Nashville's share of the expected goals by 3.35%. Still impressive, no doubt, but the difference isn't nearly as drastic.

While Makar lags a little behind in terms of raw points, he's on pace for 30 goals over 82 games. That is ridiculous.

Don't get me wrong - Josi is having a remarkably strong season and deserves all the attention he's getting. Potentially hitting 100 points while helping your team drive play is no small feat.

But Makar is having a similarly strong season in terms of counting stats while impressing more beneath the hood.

I expect the recency bias of Josi's ridiculous second half to ultimately sway voters, but if it were up to me, Makar's overall body of work would be rewarded.

As an aside, I don't think Charlie McAvoy is getting nearly enough love for the season he's had. While his point totals aren't as gaudy, they're still very good. His impact is better than Makar's and Josi's despite being tasked with arguably the most difficult workload of any defenseman in the NHL.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.