NHL daily betting guide: Opening moneyline projections for April 12

Two weeks remain in the NHL season, and the entire Eastern Conference is playing out the string with a 15-point gap between the final playoff team and the first team out. How that great divide will affect games between now and April 29 is anyone's guess, so bettors should tread lightly.

Meanwhile, things are heating up out west. With eight points separating six teams fighting for the wild card spots, it won't just be bettors keeping an eye on scoreboards. Tuesday night's feature in the wild Western Conference is a matchup between the Golden Knights and Canucks.

The Canucks took three out of four available points in a home-and-home with Vegas earlier in April and have won three straight to bolster their playoff hopes. However, the Golden Knights are 7-3 on the moneyline in their last 10 games.

Before even looking at the metrics, the situation and the way these two teams are fighting to climb the standings suggest a game that could go either way and should be priced as something of a coin flip.

The Canucks will continue a sweep-able homestand after Tuesday's matchup, while the Golden Knights will carry on to Alberta for games against better teams. What happens during this section of the schedule will drastically affect both clubs' playoff hopes. On Tuesday night, with each side needing to amplify its play from regular season to "playoff hockey," we'll get a strong indication if bettors can find value trusting or fading these two teams going forward.

The recipe

Before the 2021-22 campaign, we devised a three-part series on how to use the regular-season point-total market to create team ratings, how to interpret home-ice advantage, and then how to use those to create your own moneylines.

This season's on-ice predictive metrics make up 80% of our total rating. Basing 20% of the ratings on preseason "priors" allows us to emphasize team metrics without going all-in on what's happened during this campaign, which is still a relatively small sample size that includes some tainted results from when COVID-19 ravaged lineups.

I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a side playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and 3% without travel.

How to use the guide

What follows is my fair price on the matchups (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I would need to bet on each side. I just need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. You can establish your own threshold - you may decide on a higher cutoff for bigger underdogs, like 6%-7%. On games I've projected could be a near coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough to make a wager worthwhile.

Tuesday, April 12

Compare the "Price to Bet" column with the prices the market offered. From there, compile a list of bets. The only reason not to make a bet is if our team ratings don't account for something - like a star player being a surprise scratch - or if you've put a team on the "Do Not Bet" list.

After you make your bets, come back before puck drop on game night to see if line moves created a valuable bet that wasn't there before. At that point, compare the price of your opening bet to its late price to see how much closing-line value you may be getting.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.