NHL daily betting guide: Opening moneyline projections for April 20

The moneyline underdog drought ended Monday night, and much of the NHL betting community rejoiced.

After 22 straight games over the weekend without winning, three moneyline 'dogs cashed a ticket: the Devils (versus the Golden Knights), the Capitals (against the Avalanche), and the Canucks (versus the Stars).

But not every underdog was a winner Monday. Both the Blackhawks and Coyotes failed to beat the respective favorites in the Flames and Hurricanes.

Parsing out who's going to pull off the upset is the difference between betting for value and truly handicapping the teams.

After more than a full year of tumult, the Canucks are finally focused, healthy, and they have the right head coach. The talent on the roster, and their interest in playing "playoff hockey," has manifested itself in a six-game winning streak, leaving them two points out of a postseason spot with six contests to go. Winning a home game against the Stars - a team that's less successful on the road - should've been more expected than the price suggested.

The Devils (+260) beat the Golden Knights as a larger underdog than the Blackhawks were to the Flames (-270). But ask anyone in Vegas about the Golden Knights' season so far, or listen to clips from Peter DeBoer - there are cracks in the armor. Meanwhile, the Devils are a team that our metrics suggest is better than its record.

As for the Blackhawks, they're 1-9 on the moneyline in their last 10 games, so it's not like there should've been much hope against a Flames team that's rolled through the latter half of the season. Similarly, after a nice run in March, the Coyotes are 2-8 on the moneyline, so there was little reason to back them against the Hurricanes. Meanwhile, as highly regarded as the Avalanche are, the Capitals are a playoff team that has a much better record on the road (24-13) than at home (19-20).

The NHL betting guide exists to understand how pricing works, and to measure the true value in a game. However, you can find an extra edge by putting in more work and showing discipline in your betting, as well as knowing what's going on with each team inside and out, like you would your favorite team.

The recipe

Before the 2021-22 campaign, we devised a three-part series on how to use the regular-season point-total market to create team ratings, how to interpret home-ice advantage, and then how to use those to create your own moneylines.

This season's on-ice predictive metrics make up 90% of our total rating. Basing 10% of the ratings on preseason "priors" allows us to emphasize team metrics without going all-in on what's happened during this campaign, which is still a relatively small sample size that includes some tainted results from when COVID-19 ravaged lineups. I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a side playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and 3% without travel.

How to use the guide

What follows is my fair price on the matchups (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I'd need to bet on each side. I just need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. You can establish your own threshold and may decide on a higher cutoff for bigger underdogs, like 6%-7%. On games that I've projected could be a near coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough to make a wager worthwhile.

Wednesday, April 20

Compare the "Price to Bet" column with the market's prices. From there, compile a list of wagers. After you make your bets, come back before puck drop on game night to see if any line movements created value that wasn't there before. At that point, compare the price of your opening bet to its late price to see how much closing-line value you may be getting.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.