Conn Smythe Trophy Power Rankings: McDavid, Draisaitl on fire
Now that we're into the conference finals of the Stanley Cup Playoffs, the race for the Conn Smythe Trophy is truly taking shape.
The Edmonton Oilers' two-headed monster of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl is wreaking an historic level of havoc upon its foes, while New York Rangers' Hart Trophy finalist Igor Shesterkin hasn't stopped beasting.
Another Oiler - Evander Kane - leads all playoff skaters with 12 goals, but McDavid and/or Draisaitl set up half of them, and the dynamic duo has been more valuable.
Here are our top five candidates for postseason MVP after two rounds.
5. Cale Makar
GP | G | A | ATOI | xGF% |
---|---|---|---|---|
10 | 3 | 10 | 26:42 | 65.53 |
Makar was the Conn Smythe favorite after the opening round thanks to an historic performance for a defenseman in which he piled up 10 points in four games. The Norris Trophy finalist's production has cooled off since then, but he remains in the discussion for several reasons.
The Colorado Avalanche are dominating possession and the share of offensive opportunities with the 23-year-old on the ice at five-on-five. Colorado has mustered over two-thirds of the scoring chances in those situations in addition to its similarly excellent expected goals for percentage.
While Makar failed to score and collected only three assists in Round 2, he continued to shoulder a heavy workload. The 2019-20 Calder Trophy winner and 2021 Norris runner-up logged over 27 minutes per game in six contests against the St. Louis Blues, including an average of 28:03 over the final four.
4. Nathan MacKinnon
GP | G | A | ATOI | xGF% |
---|---|---|---|---|
10 | 8 | 5 | 21:09 | 66.26 |
MacKinnon isn't putting up mind-boggling counting stats to match the skaters ahead of him on this list, but the Avalanche superstar has been nearly as important to his club despite Makar's exploits. MacKinnon leads all skaters in the playoffs with 55 shots on goal, and he's played fewer games than the seven players directly below him.
The Nova Scotian dynamo is controlling possession like no one else. MacKinnon ranks first in expected goals for percentage among skaters who've played at least 150 minutes at five-on-five. He also sits second among that same group in scoring chances for percentage with a blistering mark of 69.09. Both figures illustrate how much the Avalanche have overwhelmed opponents with MacKinnon on the ice.
3. Igor Shesterkin
GP | Record | SV% | GSAx | GSAA |
---|---|---|---|---|
14 | 8-5 | .928 | 13.8 | 5.89 |
Shesterkin deserves playoff MVP consideration for the same reason he's a Hart finalist. The Rangers goaltender is having a stellar postseason despite playing more than anyone else at his position, and he's the biggest reason for New York's success - just as he was during the regular season.
The 26-year-old leads all netminders in goals saved above expected at five-on-five - no remaining goalie is even close to him in that category (the Tampa Bay Lightning's Andrei Vasilevskiy sits second with 6.36).
Shesterkin was virtually impenetrable in the Rangers' seven-game victory over the Carolina Hurricanes in the second round, stopping all but 12 of 234 shots for an astounding .949 save percentage.
2. Leon Draisaitl
GP | G | A | ATOI | xGF% |
---|---|---|---|---|
12 | 7 | 19 | 20:46 | 48.42 |
It's a bit unconventional to have two players from the same team as the two most valuable, but it's impossible to overstate how instrumental Draisaitl has been to the Oilers' run while essentially playing on one leg.
The German was incredible in the Oilers' second-round series win over the Calgary Flames. Draisaitl notched a pair of goals and amassed a whopping 15 assists, all while playing through an injury sustained in Game 6 of the first round against the Los Angeles Kings.
His 17 points against the Flames tied Rick Middleton's NHL record for the most through five games in a single series. Draisaitl produced at least three points in five straight contests and will match the all-time mark held by Bobby Orr, Wayne Gretzky, and Jari Kurri if he does it again in Game 1 against the Avalanche.
The 26-year-old is tied with McDavid for the playoff points lead, and while Draisaitl's underlying numbers are unfavorable as usual, there's no denying what he's accomplished under the circumstances.
1. Connor McDavid
GP | G | A | ATOI | xGF% |
---|---|---|---|---|
12 | 7 | 19 | 22:19 | 62.87 |
Much like his talented teammate, McDavid is putting up video game numbers in these playoffs. But what separates him from both Draisaitl and the rest of the field is his all-around dominance.
McDavid has played over a minute more than Draisaitl per game while posting exceptional underlying figures. The Oilers captain has also excelled defensively. He's tied for 11th among all forwards with 39 hits and sits fifth at the position with 13 takeaways while boasting one of the best expected goals against totals at five-on-five among qualified forwards.
Both Oilers superstars are blowing away the field in point production, but the 2021-22 Hart Trophy finalist and reigning winner deserves to sit atop the pack because of his unmistakable impact in nearly every facet of the game.
(Analytics source: Natural Stat Trick, Evolving Hockey)