NHL daily betting guide: Opening moneyline projections for April 21

You probably looked down the oddsboard for Tuesday night and had the moneyline pricing for the Red Wings and Lightning jump out at you. For much of the 24 hours between Monday night's open and puck drop at Amalie Arena, the Lightning were -500 on the moneyline - an implication that the defending Stanley Cup Champions would win 83.3% of the time.

Thanks to a three-goal second period, the Red Wings beat Tampa 4-3 and cashed for those brave enough to believe that Detroit's likelihood of winning was closer to 35%. The Red Wings didn't even have the luxury of facing backup goaltender Brian Elliott - enough of a downgrade from Andrei Vasilevskiy to make a significant pricing difference.

Naturally, the Wings' win validates whatever chances anyone gave them for victory. Even if they really only had a 17% chance to come out on top, Tuesday's game might have been part of the 17 out of 100. A +400 win also negates four lost bets on recently vanquished underdogs.

Two nights later, they travel south to Sunrise, and if they were +400 against the Lightning, there's no reason to believe a similar price won't be on the board against the Panthers - one of few teams rated higher than Tampa Bay.

This is even more frightening for underdog bettors based on how you interpret the Panthers' on-ice results into their moneylines. The following depicts Florida's record in various situations and what that would imply if we built moneylines in hindsight:

Not only have the Panthers' results improved throughout the season, but they're also nails at home. This doesn't bode well for a below-average team like the Red Wings coming to town. Florida has proven valuable at the hypothetical astronomical moneyline of -500.

Unlike their champion state-mates to the north - who are a solid but unspectacular 46-30 on the season and a slightly better 24-14 at home - the Panthers might not be worth messing with, even if the moneyline is eye-popping on the board.

The recipe

Before the 2021-22 campaign, we devised a three-part series on how to use the regular-season point-total market to create team ratings, how to interpret home-ice advantage, and then how to use those to create your own moneylines.

This season's on-ice predictive metrics make up 90% of our total rating. Basing 10% of the ratings on preseason "priors" allows us to emphasize team metrics without going all-in on what's happened during this campaign, which is still a relatively small sample size that includes some tainted results from when COVID-19 ravaged lineups. I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a side playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and 3% without travel.

How to use the guide

What follows is my fair price on the matchups (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I'd need to bet on each side. I just need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. You can establish your own threshold and may decide on a higher cutoff for bigger underdogs, like 6%-7%. On games that I've projected could be a near coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough to make a wager worthwhile.

Thursday, April 21

Compare the "Price to Bet" column with the market's prices. From there, compile a list of wagers. After you make your bets, come back before puck drop on game night to see if any line movements created value that wasn't there before. At that point, compare the price of your opening bet to its late price to see how much closing-line value you may be getting.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.