NHL Thursday best bets: Dancing with the Devils
We have a jam-packed 11-game slate on the docket Thursday night, which means there's a ton of value on the board.
Let's dive into a couple of my favorite team bets and player props.
Rangers (-130) @ Islanders (+110)
Games between the New York Rangers and New York Islanders are where offense goes to die. The two sides have met three times this season, going under the number (5.5) in each matchup.
They've combined for only 11 goals over those three games, good for an average of less than four per contest.
The underlying metrics suggest that's no coincidence. At five-on-five, the New York teams have yet to combine for an expected goal output above four. Even when including special teams, the numbers are still lifeless.
It'd be one thing if they weren't generating many chances but had the luxury of shooting on bad goaltenders. However, that's far from the case.
Igor Shesterkin is the runaway favorite to win the Vezina, while Semyon Varlamov has played quite well of late. He owns a .914 save percentage in 13 appearances over the last month and change, putting him well above the league average of .902.
Beyond the goaltenders, I also think each side's recent form plays into the under. The Rangers have allowed expected goals at a lesser rate than anyone since the deadline, and the Islanders aren't exactly the most potent offensive side.
Bet: Under 5.5 (-120)
Sabres (+110) @ Devils (-140)
The Buffalo Sabres have a respectable 5-5-0 record over the last 10, but they're not playing overly well. They've only controlled 43% of the high-danger chances at five-on-five during that span, sandwiching them between the Arizona Coyotes and Columbus Blue Jackets. That's not great company to be keeping.
I think Buffalo's five-on-five struggles will be problematic against the New Jersey Devils. Even without key players like Jack Hughes and Jonas Siegenthaler, the Devils have remained formidable during that game state. New Jersey's share of high-danger chances sits at nearly 51% over the same period, which is comparable to playoff sides like the Washington Capitals and Tampa Bay Lightning.
Going up against Craig Anderson is also a big plus given his current form. The Sabres netminder owns a .889 save percentage in 17 appearances since the beginning of March. That ranks him in the bottom five among all netminders with double-digit games in that time.
I like the Devils at home in this spot, especially if Mackenzie Blackwood makes his return to the lineup.
Jonathan Huberdeau over 2.5 shots (-134)
You all know the drill by now. If Jonathan Huberdeau is playing at home, we're backing him regardless of the matchup until the market severely adjusts his price point. That hasn't happened yet, so we ride again.
Huberdeau's consistency in Florida this season has been unmatched. He's registered at least three shots on goal in 27 of the last 31 games, good for a ridiculous 87% hit rate.
Despite a mouth-watering matchup against a Detroit Red Wings team that's given up shot attempts at a higher rate than anyone over the last 10 games, the odds imply only a 57% chance of Huberdeau going over the number. I see a ton of value in backing him once again.
Kevin Hayes over 2.5 shots (-125)
Kevin Hayes is quietly in the midst of one of the league's best shot-generation streaks. He's registered at least four shots - yes, four - in eight of the last 10 games.
The big spike in production isn't a coincidence. He's averaged 6.1 attempts per contest during that spell, up significantly from his season average of 4.2.
With Claude Giroux out of the picture and several key forwards injured, Hayes has taken on a bigger role offensively. Clearly, it is making a difference.
Hayes finds himself in a great spot to continue his success. The Montreal Canadiens are one of the worst shot-suppression teams in the NHL, and only four teams have conceded more to centers over the last month.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.