NHL weekend betting guide: Opening moneyline projections for April 23-25
As we note in every edition of the NHL betting guide, we tried to calculate the home-ice advantage for every team before the season - using the difference between their winning percentage at home vs. on the road - to create our own moneylines.
The Ottawa Senators haven't been very good for a while. But the Senators were 36-42 on the moneyline at home between 2018 and the shutdown in 2020 while going 18-57 on the road, so we needed to factor their substantial home-road splits into pricing their games.
Does that guarantee the Sens have the same relative success going forward? Of course not - and Ottawa's proven that this season, sitting at 13-27 on the moneyline at home and 16-23 on the road. Variance is simply the best explanation for why the Senators are all of a sudden playing better on the road than at home. Not only are their 79 games this season not a big enough sample size, but the 153 games from 2018 to 2020 likely aren't either.
Add it all up, and the Sens win 41.5% of the time on home ice and own a 29.8% win percentage on the road. A difference of 11.7% is much closer to the league average of 6.35%.
Here are the moneyline win percentage differentials for each team this campaign compared to the season and a half before the 2020 shutdown:
Home/Road win percentage differential
| TEAM | 2018-2020 | 2021-2022* |
|---|---|---|
| Ducks | 7.3% | 8.4% |
| Coyotes | 5.1% | -4.6% |
| Bruins | 11.8% | -2.8% |
| Sabres | 24.6% | 2.6% |
| Hurricanes | 4.2% | 12.2% |
| Blue Jackets | 3.9% | 9.0% |
| Flames | 0.03% | -3.2% |
| Blackhawks | 3.8% | -5.0% |
| Avalanche | 0.1% | 16.2% |
| Stars | 8.6% | 18.6% |
| Red Wings | 10.5% | 13.6% |
| Oilers | -0.8% | 14.6% |
| Panthers | 3.4% | 21.4% |
| Kings | 16.8% | -6.4% |
| Wild | -3.3% | 23.2% |
| Canadiens | 2% | 0% |
| Devils | 9.8% | 13.9% |
| Predators | 1.9% | 14.1% |
| Islanders | 5.2% | 9% |
| Rangers | 2.8% | 5.9% |
| Senators | 22.2% | -6.8% |
| Flyers | 12.6% | 6.5% |
| Penguins | 9.9% | -2.6% |
| Sharks | 10.5% | 9.4% |
| Kraken | N/A | 8.7% |
| Blues | 9.9% | 9.7% |
| Lightning | 5.8% | 6.2% |
| Maple Leafs | 1.4% | 18% |
| Canucks | 16.6% | -6.7% |
| Golden Knights | 11.6% | 2.4% |
| Jets | 5.7% | 12.4% |
| Capitals | -4.3% | -14.2% |
*Only includes games played this season up to April 21
Beyond the Senators, there's a mediocre-team example in the Canucks, while the Bruins are the good team version that's sustained more home-ice success than on the road - only to see that flip this campaign. The Oilers and Wild have made the most of their home games this season after putting up a better road record in recent years.
The Maple Leafs, Panthers, Predators, and Stars all improved their standing this season through home-ice win percentage alone.
But the important takeaway is understanding the wild swings in home/road splits from year to year for an individual team. The average +6.35% overall difference in the 2021-22 season isn't far off of the +6.9% average in the 2018-2020 column. Something close to 6.5% is a good way to determine any given club's likelihood to win at home versus on the road.
The recipe
This season's on-ice predictive metrics make up 90% of our total rating. Basing 10% of the ratings on preseason "priors" allows us to emphasize team metrics without going all-in on what's happened during this campaign, which includes some tainted results from when COVID-19 ravaged lineups.
I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a side playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and 3% without travel.
How to use the guide
What follows is my fair price on the matchups (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I would need to bet on each side. I just need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. You can establish your own threshold - you may decide on a higher cutoff for bigger underdogs, like 6%-7%. On games I've projected could be a near coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough to make a wager worthwhile.
| DATE | GAME | WIN PROB.(%) | TRUE ML | PRICE TO BET |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 23 | NYI@BUF | 52.2/47.8 | -109/+109 | NYI -105/BUF +128 |
| CAR@NJD | 51.1/48.9 | -104/+104 | CAR +106/NJD +115 | |
| PIT@DET | 56.2/43.8 | -128/+128 | PIT -123/DET +151 | |
| NYR@BOS | 43.5/56.5 | +130/-130 | NYR +153/BOS -125 | |
| NSH@TBL | 44.6/55.4 | +124/-124 | NSH +146/TBL -119 | |
| TOR@FLA | 41/59 | +144/-144 | TOR +170/FLA -138 | |
| MTL@OTT | 44.3/55.7 | +126/-126 | MTL +148/OTT -121 | |
| SEA@DAL | 35.2/64.8 | +184/-184 | SEA +220/DAL -176 | |
| CHI@SJS | 45.7/54.3 | +119/-119 | CHI +140/SJS -114 | |
| STL@ARI | 53.8/46.2 | -117/+117 | STL -112/ARI +137 | |
| VAN@CGY | 40.7/59.3 | +146/-146 | VAN +172/CGY -140 | |
| ANA@LAK | 40.3/59.7 | +148/-148 | ANA +176/LAK -142 | |
| April 24 | EDM@CBJ | 56.7/43.3 | -131/+131 | EDM -126/CBJ +154 |
| DET@NJD | 38.7/61.3 | +159/-159 | DET +189/NJD -152 | |
| CAR@NYI | 52.8/47.2 | -112/+112 | CAR -107/NYI +131 | |
| PIT@PHI | 52.1/47.9 | -109/+109 | PIT +102/PHI +120 | |
| TBL@FLA | 40.3/59.7 | +148/-148 | TBL +176/FLA -142 | |
| COL@WPG | 52.8/47.2 | -112/+112 | COL -108/WPG +132 | |
| TOR@WSH | 47.1/52.9 | +112/-112 | TOR +132/WSH -108 | |
| BOS@MTL | 60.1/39.9 | -151/+151 | BOS -145/MTL +179 | |
| MIN@NSH | 51.3/48.7 | -105/+105 | MIN +105/NSH +117 | |
| STL@ANA | 50.7/49.3 | -103/+103 | STL +107/ANA +114 | |
| SJS@VGK | 35.9/64.1 | +179/-179 | SJS +214/VGK -171 | |
| April 25 | PHI@CHI | 45.2/54.8 | +121/-121 | PHI +143/CHI -116 |
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.