Oilers-Kings series preview: Betting by the numbers
Having a plan rooted in advanced metric evaluations is a good way to remove any personal biases. That bias might be against the Oilers after recent postseason disappointments, but last season’s sweep at the hands of the Jets was an all-time outlier. All four games could have gone either way - with three going to overtime.
The Oilers created 60 high-danger chances to the Jets’ 39, and Edmonton had a 58.75 expected goal share. Add that to a powerplay with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl on it, not only should the Oilers have not been swept, they should have won the series relatively easily.
The reason the series went the way it did was due to goaltending. Mike Smith came into the playoffs last year with an +8.36 GSAx (goals saved above expectation) only to falter with a -1.58 GSAx against Winnipeg. This year Smith has a +6.92 GSAx, but can the Oilers rely on him to be consistent in the playoffs? The other option is Mikko Koskinen, who led the team in wins despite his -2.01 GSAx.
Meanwhile, the Kings return to the playoffs after a core of Anze Kopitar, Dustin Brown, Drew Doughty, and Jonathan Quick led surprise runs to the Stanley Cup. Los Angeles made astute offseason additions with proven playoff performers Viktor Arvidsson and Phillip Danault, but it's Adrian Kempe's leap to a career-high 35 goals that's allowed the Kings to easily clear their projected 84.5 point total for the season.
Series odds
| TEAM | GAME 1 | SERIES | SERIES HANDICAP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oilers | -205 | -250 | EDM -1.5 (-115) |
| Kings | +165 | +200 | LAK +1.5 (-105) |
Projected prices
Hopefully you used our NHL betting guide to evaluate your bets during the regular season, and what value truly means in hockey. For the playoffs, we're using even-strength-centric metrics like expected goals, high-danger chance rates, as well as high-danger conversion rates - both for and against - to try to predict who will play better in the postseason.
Due to the special circumstances of the season, which includes some tainted results from before the All-Star break when COVID-19 ravaged lineups, we're weighing the second half more than we normally would. Lastly, we'll make use of a formula to factor in home ice that includes each team's moneyline win percentage with the league average win probability differential.
True moneylines
The true moneyline takes the implied win probability for each team and converts it to an inverted price for each side before the sportsbook takes their vig on a bet.
The following is the expected price for each side when the games are played in Edmonton (Game 1, 2, 5, and 7), and in Los Angeles (Game 3, 4, and 6).
| OILERS | KINGS | |
|---|---|---|
| True ML in Edmonton | -163 | +163 |
| True ML In Los Angeles | -104 | +104 |
| Series Price | -191 | +191 |
Price to bet
In the regular season, we'd need at least a 4% edge on an underdog and a 1% edge for the favorite. Using that same threshold, here are the prices to bet for each scenario:
| GAME 1/2/5/7 | GAME 3/4/6 | SERIES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oilers | -156 | +100 | -183 |
| Kings | +194 | +122 | +230 |
From a series standpoint, there’s not much of a bet to be made here as the market almost matches what I have. The vigorish for Game 1 appears to be pressed onto the Oilers with an opening moneyline of -205.
Derivative series market
The following is the probability for each of the eight possible series results, along with a fair price for an exact result bet.
| Series result | Probability / Converted Odds |
|---|---|
| Oilers 4-0 | 10% / +900 |
| Oilers 4-1 | 19.5% / +413 |
| Oilers 4-2 | 17.7% / +466 |
| Oilers 4-3 | 18.5% / +440 |
| Kings 4-0 | 3.5% / +2783 |
| Kings 4-1 | 7% / +1319 |
| Kings 4-2 | 12.4% / +705 |
| Kings 4-3 | 11.4% / +780 |
From a value perspective, the Kings are available at +750 to win 4-2, which would be better than the fair price of +705 by 0.6%. In the series handicap market, the Kings (+1.5) are available at -105 (51.2%) with a fair price of -112 (52.8%), so there's a modest deal to be had there at a 1.6% edge.
Best bet
With not much in the mathematical evaluation of the odds to push us one way or another, we’ll have to bet this series the old-fashioned way. Whether it’s Smith, Koskinen, or both, the Oilers can get at least average goaltending in this series. If they do, we’ll want to bet on high-end Oilers’ results, implying that they can take care of the Kings quickly. With a heavy price for them to just win the series, "Oilers in five" is the way to go for a long-term bet on a short-term result.
Pick: Oilers win 4-1 (+340)
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.