NHL daily betting guide: Opening moneyline projections for April 26
Mercifully, we've reached the last week of the regular season. With just a handful of games left and less at stake, the goal for many teams with Stanley Cup aspirations is to stay healthy.
Intrepid bettors need to be aware in the final week of who's in the lineup on a nightly basis and who starts in goal. While it's tough for many teams to decipher who the better netminder is earlier in the campaign, we now have enough data to form a clearer picture.
After nearly a full season of results and with help from Evolvinghockey.com, the following are the squads with the biggest statistical drop-off from one goaltender to another by goals saved above expected (GSAx) and the team's record on the moneyline with each goalie in net (as of games played on April 23).
| TEAM | GOALIE | GSAx | ML RECORD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rangers | Igor Shesterkin | 38.21 | 36-16 |
| Alexandar Georgiev | -4.8 | 14-11 | |
| Hurricanes | Frederik Andersen | 28.47 | 35-17 |
| Antti Raanta | 8.16 | 14-19 | |
| Islanders* | Ilya Sorokin | 20.99 | 25-25 |
| Semyon Varlamov | 2.62 | 9-18 | |
| Blues | Ville Husso | 17.51 | 24-12 |
| Jordan Binnington | -9.15 | 18-17 | |
| Flames | Jacob Markstrom | 17.31 | 37-23 |
| Dan Vladar | -4.35 | 12-7 | |
| Lightning | Andrei Vasilevskiy | 15.63 | 36-23 |
| Brian Elliott | 0.93 | 11-6 | |
| Avalanche | Darcy Kuemper | 15.02 | 36-14 |
| Pavel Francouz | 0.27 | 15-5 | |
| Predators | Juuse Saros | 13.59 | 38-28 |
| David Rittich | -6.04 | 5-5 | |
| Panthers | Sergei Bobrovsky | 12.09 | 39-9 |
| Spencer Knight | -1.09 | 18-11 | |
| Kings | Jonathan Quick | 12.0 | 22-22 |
| Calvin Peterson | -8.02 | 20-15 |
*Will not be participating in 2022 Stanley Cup Playoffs
When betting these teams in the final week, there should be a consideration for who's starting. The Islanders, Blues, Panthers, and perhaps the Kings all might have been surprised by who their best goaltender was this season, despite L.A. having a better record in Cal Peterson's starts.
Meanwhile, a half-dozen playoff-caliber clubs don't have much statistical difference between netminders should one start over the other.
| TEAM | GOALIE | GSAx | ML RECORD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stars | Jake Oettinger | -0.36 | 28-16 |
| Braden Holtby | -1.12 | 10-11 | |
| Capitals | Vanecek | 0.71 | 20-16 |
| Samsonov | -9.2 | 23-15 | |
| Oilers | Mike Smith | 3.88 | 15-11 |
| Mikko Koskinen | -4.87 | 25-15 | |
| Bruins | Jeremy Swayman | -1.88 | 22-16 |
| Linus Ullmark | -5.09 | 24-12 | |
| Penguins | Tristan Jarry | 6.58 | 34-24 |
| Casey Desmith | -2.3 | 10-10 |
The recipe
Before the 2021-22 campaign, we devised a three-part series on how to use the regular-season point-total market to create team ratings, how to interpret home-ice advantage, and then how to use those to create your own moneylines.
This season's on-ice predictive metrics make up 90% of our total rating. Basing 10% of the ratings on preseason "priors" allows us to emphasize team metrics without going all-in on what's happened during this campaign, which is still a relatively small sample size that includes some tainted results from when COVID-19 ravaged lineups. I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a side playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and 3% without travel.
How to use the guide
What follows is my fair price on the matchups (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I'd need to bet on each side. I just need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. You can establish your own threshold and may decide on a higher cutoff for bigger underdogs, like 6%-7%. On games that I've projected could be a near coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough to make a wager worthwhile.
Tuesday, April 26
| GAME | WIN PROB.(%) | TRUE ML | PRICE TO BET |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET@TOR | 22.8/77.2 | +339/-339 | DET +433/TOR -321 |
| NJD@OTT | 53.9/46.1 | -117/+117 | NJD -112/OTT +138 |
| EDM@PIT | 48.1/51.9 | +108/-108 | EDM +119/PIT +102 |
| FLA@BOS | 51.8/48.2 | -108/+108 | FLA +103/BOS +119 |
| CAR@NYR | 50.9/49.1 | -104/+104 | CAR +107/NYR +115 |
| CBJ@TBL | 25.9/74.1 | +287/-287 | CBJ +358/TBL -272 |
| NYI@WSH | 39.8/60.2 | +151/-151 | NYI +179/WSH -145 |
| CGY@NSH | 51/49 | -104/+104 | CGY +106/NSH +115 |
| ARI@MIN | 21.1/78.9 | +373/-373 | ARI +484/MIN -352 |
| VGK@DAL | 44.7/55.3 | +124/-124 | VGK +146/DAL -119 |
| STL@COL | 37.8/62.2 | +165/-165 | STL +196/COL -158 |
| SEA@VAN | 31.9/68.1 | +213/-213 | SEA +258/VAN -204 |
| ANA@SJS | 45.2/54.8 | +121/-121 | ANA +143/SJS -116 |
Compare the "Price to Bet" column with the market's prices. From there, compile a list of wagers. After you make your bets, come back before puck drop on game night to see if any line movements created value that wasn't there before. At that point, compare the price of your opening bet to its late price to see how much closing-line value you may be getting.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.