NHL daily betting guide: Opening moneyline projections for April 27

Before diving into Wednesday's action, we must mention that the highest-leverage contest on Tuesday's slate takes place in Dallas. With three games left to play for each team, the Stars lead the Golden Knights by three points for the last wild-card spot, so the former can put the final nail in the latter's coffin with a win.

While this game is going on, some sportsbooks will open their prices for Wednesday's games, and they may even include the games involving the Stars (vs. Coyotes), and the Golden Knights (at Blackhawks). If that's the case, how Tuesday's marquee matchup shakes out will drastically affect the teams' outlooks for the next night.

On paper, both teams have eminently winnable games against bottom-three Western Conference opposition. If the Golden Knights can keep hope alive with a win, it will revitalize hopes going into the Windy City. Alternatively, if the Stars, one of the best home teams in hockey, can clinch a playoff spot, both teams potentially become less interested in the second leg of their respective back-to-backs.

If that does happen, both underdogs become more interesting. Unfortunately, they are underdogs for a reason. In our due diligence, we need to know what they've been up to lately - which is, of course, losing.

Before going into Minnesota as +450 underdogs Tuesday night, the Coyotes have lost 10 straight games and will be on the second half of a back-to-back themselves, with travel.

The Blackhawks, the Golden Knights' opponents, have won three times since March 24. Chicago triumphed in a shootout at home versus the Sharks, on the road in overtime over the Coyotes, and on Monday, they managed a 3-1 win over the Flyers. They've lost the other 12 games in the span of just over a month. A glimmer of hope exists in that one of the defeats - in overtime in Las Vegas on March 26 - even-strength play was nearly dead even.

Tuesday's big game in "Big D" is lined as a pick'em, but intrepid bettors will be watching intently with their oddsboard up, ready to pounce on a big number should the playoff picture become clearer.

The recipe

Before the 2021-22 campaign, we devised a three-part series on how to use the regular-season point-total market to create team ratings, how to interpret home-ice advantage, and then how to use those to create your own moneylines.

This season's on-ice predictive metrics make up 90% of our total rating. Basing 10% of the ratings on preseason "priors" allows us to emphasize team metrics without going all-in on what's happened during this campaign, which includes some tainted results from when COVID-19 ravaged lineups. I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a side playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and 3% without travel.

How to use the guide

What follows is my fair price on the matchups (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I'd need to bet on each side. I just need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. You can establish your own threshold and may decide on a higher cutoff for bigger underdogs, like 6%-7%. On games that I've projected could be a near coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough to make a wager worthwhile.

Wednesday, April 27

Compare the "Price to Bet" column with the market's prices. From there, compile a list of wagers. After you make your bets, come back before puck drop on game night to see if any line movements created value that wasn't there before. At that point, compare the price of your opening bet to its late price to see how much closing-line value you may be getting.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.