NHL Tuesday best bets: Knights to keep playoff hopes alive in Dallas
Both of the bets from the weekend preview came through, with the Ottawa Senators and San Jose Sharks picking up wins for us.
We'll look to pick up where we left off with three plays for tonight's jam-packed schedule.
Flames (-140) @ Predators (+115)
The Calgary Flames and Nashville Predators have met twice this season, with both games featuring just five goals.
I expect the trend of unders to continue on Tuesday night. Calgary has been one of the NHL's best defensive sides all season long and nothing has changed of late. They rank sixth in scoring chances allowed at five-on-five and ninth in expected goals allowed over the last 10 games. They're not giving up much.
The same can be said of the Predators as only three teams have given up fewer five-on-five chances over the last 10.
Combine the defensive prowess with the projected goaltending matchup and it's hard to envision an offensive explosion. Jacob Markstrom might well be a Vezina finalist and he enters this contest in fine form, having conceded two or less in six of his last eight starts.
Juuse Saros' game log isn't quite as impressive but his season numbers (.918 save percentage, +20.8 goals saved above expected) suggest he should be more than fine playing behind a competent defensive side.
It's also possible Calgary, a team playing for nothing, elects to sit a couple players for load management. While I'm not banking on that, per se, it could be a bonus.
This total is at least half a puck too high.
Bet: Under 6.5 (-115)
Golden Knights (-110) @ Stars (-110)
I know the Vegas Golden Knights have stumbled a little bit of late but they really are playing better than the results indicate.
No, they shouldn't be losing to teams like San Jose and New Jersey. But those losses were exceptions to the rule based on how they played. The Golden Knights were on the front foot for the majority of each of those games, holding chance differentials of +15 (San Jose) and +18 (New Jersey). They blew a lead with less than a second to go vs the former while a handful - yes, a handful - of posts proved to be the difference against New Jersey. It happens.
Even with some of their best players dealing with nagging injuries, and some of the off-ice drama hovering over, this is a legitimately good team.
Vegas has controlled nearly 54% of the expected goals over the last 10 games, ranking them eighth in the NHL at five-on-five. That's well above the Dallas Stars. The latter's share of the expected goals is less than 50%, which slots them 19th in the league.
I think the Golden Knights will get the better of the Stars at five-on-five. With both teams showing good discipline of late, there should be even more full-strength play than you'd generally expect to see. That should be good news for Vegas.
I expect a close affair but like Vegas to prevail and keep their playoff chances alive.
Bet: Golden Knights (-110)
Oilers (+130) @ Penguins (-155)
The Edmonton Oilers continue to hum along under Jay Woodcroft. The wins are there more often than not and the process is as good as we've seen from the team in a long, long time.
Take the last 10 games, for example. Edmonton's five-on-five share of Grade A chances sits at 59.78%. That places them second in the league, sandwiching the Oilers between the Florida Panthers and Boston Bruins. Damn good company.
They are dominating in the chance department almost every night. That's a recipe for success when you have top-tier talents like Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl on the receiving end of all those opportunities.
Factor in an almost unbelievable resurgence from Mike Smith and there aren't many flaws with the Oilers right now.
While the Pittsburgh Penguins are solid, their power play is really floundering and I don't fully trust Casey DeSmith. I see value in backing the Oilers.
Bet: Oilers (+130)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.