Hart Trophy Rankings: McDavid gets back in the driver's seat

The 2022-23 NHL season is less than a month old, but some legitimate front-runners have emerged in the Hart Trophy race.

The league's best all-around player is making another strong bid to claim this award for the third time after finishing second in the voting last season. Meanwhile, a superstar in the other conference has raised his game in a contract year while his team's been undermanned.

Elsewhere, Igor Shesterkin has played well in 2022-23, but he's not stopping pucks at the level that made him a Hart finalist last campaign. However, there's another goaltender whose value warrants recognition.

Here are our top five MVP candidates at this point in the campaign.

Goals saved above expected, goals saved above average, and expected goals for percentages in charts are at five-on-five

5. Jake Oettinger

Oettinger is the early leader in our Vezina Trophy rankings, and he deserves some Hart consideration, too. The Dallas Stars wouldn't be where they are without their promising goaltender. Yes, Oettinger is injured, but the recovery timeline the team gave Monday was at least one week, so the ailment doesn't appear significant.

The American netminder, who turns 24 on Dec. 18, has played like a seasoned veteran this campaign. He's been excellent for a club that ranks 16th in xGF%. The Minnesota-born puck-stopper has helped turn a solid but middling Stars squad into a true threat in the Central Division.

Dallas has been a defensively sound team in recent years, and it's continued that trend in 2022-23. But Oettinger's success has been vital to a club that's barely driving possession.

4. Jesper Bratt

The New Jersey Devils have been downright dominant at five-on-five this season, and Bratt is the biggest reason for their success. The Swede ranks among the league leaders in the Art Ross Trophy race early on, and he's tied for second in the NHL in even-strength points - sitting just one back of our leading Hart Trophy candidate.

Bratt also ranks fourth in the NHL in xGF% among players logging at least 100 minutes at five-on-five. New Jersey is controlling 65.24% of the scoring chances in those situations with Bratt on the ice.

The 24-year-old has collected six more points than the next most productive Devil, captain Nico Hischier, and has done so while averaging much less ice time. New Jersey will surely regret only signing Bratt to a one-year, prove-it deal in the offseason if he keeps this up.

3. Jack Eichel

Eichel acknowledged in August that he wasn't himself last season after joining the Vegas Golden Knights in February following artificial disc replacement surgery. The ex-Buffalo Sabres star wasn't scoring at his typical rate when he first started suiting up for his new team, but he's looking like his old self now that he's had more time to heal.

The 26-year-old hasn't racked up huge conventional numbers, though they're still solid. His underlying figures best illustrate his early impact in 2022-23. Eichel's xGF% is near the top of the league leaderboard among qualified skaters (using the same criteria as Bratt), and Vegas is controlling 61.71% of the scoring chances with Eichel on the ice at five-on-five.

Eichel also ranks among the NHL's best in wins above replacement and goals above replacement in 2022-23. Only the No. 2 name on this list has a better GAR than Eichel among forwards this season, and the Vegas center is tied for third among all skaters in WAR.

The Massachusetts-born pivot's play has been critical to a Golden Knights squad looking to rebound after missing the playoffs last season. He's done most of his damage at even strength, too. Eichel's scored four of his five goals and collected nine of his 13 points in those situations. This is the Jack Eichel that Vegas envisioned when the club acquired him.

2. David Pastrnak

Pastrnak was bound to have some extra motivation as a pending unrestricted free agent, but the Boston Bruins winger has exploded out of the gate in 2022-23. He's provided immense value to a club still missing defensive anchor Charlie McAvoy after not having talented pest Brad Marchand in the lineup until recently.

The Czech dynamo is also significantly outproducing his teammates. He's racked up six more points than the closest Boston skater, Hampus Lindholm, while topping the team in goals and assists. Pastrnak is among the league leaders in those categories, and the 26-year-old's average ice time would be a career high if he keeps it up over the full season.

Aside from Bruins goaltender Linus Ullmark's largely elite play, Pastrnak is the biggest reason Boston is the best team in the NHL by points percentage. He's carried the club in the absence of some important players and proven himself worthy of being among the top MVP contenders.

1. Connor McDavid

It's important not to overthink when it comes to this award. McDavid should theoretically always be the leading MVP candidate if he's playing at the level he's already proven capable of and if no one is having a more dominant season.

Unlike in 2021-22, that's exactly what's happening early this season. McDavid has become an even more potent goal-scorer than usual in 2022-23. He's leading the NHL in goals, points, points per game, and even-strength points. He also ranks sixth in average ice time among forwards.

The 25-year-old's underlying numbers are surprisingly well below his usual outstanding standards, but chalk that up to the limited sample size. McDavid is barely driving possession if one only considers his xGF%, but his scoring chances for percentage (52.53) is closer to his typical rate. Regardless, there's little doubt the NHL's most dynamic player has also been the most valuable in the early going.

(Analytics sources: Natural Stat Trick, Evolving Hockey)