NHL daily betting guide: Opening moneyline projections for April 28

As we continue using the end of the regular season to tune up for the playoffs, one of the most interesting teams heading into the postseason is the Capitals.

Remaining, at the very least, a fringe contender throughout the Alex Ovechkin era, Washington has quickly bowed out of the playoffs over the last few seasons. It now appears headed for a wild-card berth - and a potential series against the juggernaut Panthers.

Before that, though, the Capitals make a trip to New York to complete a home-and-home with the Islanders and then close the campaign with a matchup against the Rangers. Washington finished its home schedule with a loss to the Islanders on Tuesday night, which wasn't out of character given its 19-22 home record on the moneyline this season.

That's what makes the Capitals an interesting case study: their home-ice advantage - or lack thereof. The following chart compares their home and away moneyline record and even-strength expected goals share (XG%) from 2018-20 to this season:

Before the COVID-19 pandemic halted sports in March 2020, the Capitals played almost identically at home and on the road, averaging slightly less than 50% of the expected goals share in both scenarios. Given their slightly below-average even-strength goal metrics, the Capitals were fortunate to have an 89-62 record thanks to an Ovechkin-led power play.

Predictably, that reliance on the power play failed them come playoff time. Washington is 0-3 in playoff series since winning the Stanley Cup in 2018, with back-to-back 4-1 opening-round series losses the last two years.

But this season has been even more fascinating: The Capitals' even-strength play has been much better at home - with a 52/48 share in expected goals - but the team is under .500 at Capital One Arena; that outlier suggests they deserved better results in friendly confines.

On the road, Washington has seen a slight uptick from a 61% win percentage from 2018-2020 to 64% before its final two games this season, with a familiar XG% of 49. But with Ovechkin likely to sit until the playoffs, a pair of losses in the Big Apple would drop the Capitals back to their 61% road victory rate. Is that regression to the mean enough to fade them against the Islanders and Rangers this week? It certainly doesn't hurt the case for doing so.

The recipe

Before the 2021-22 campaign, we devised a three-part series on how to use the regular-season point-total market to create team ratings, how to interpret home-ice advantage, and then how to use those to create your own moneylines.

This season's on-ice predictive metrics make up 90% of our total rating. Basing 10% of the ratings on preseason "priors" allows us to emphasize team metrics without going all-in on what's happened during this campaign, which includes some tainted results from when COVID-19 ravaged lineups. I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a side playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and 3% without travel.

How to use the guide

What follows is my fair price on the matchups (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I'd need to bet on each side. I just need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. You can establish your own threshold and may decide on a higher cutoff for bigger underdogs, like 6-7%. For games that I've projected could be a near coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough to make a wager worthwhile.

Thursday, April 28

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.