Stanley Cup Playoffs betting: How to find series value before Tuesday night

Four Game 5s are set to go Tuesday night, giving us a chance to look back at our evaluations for these series after their respective Game 1s. In true Stanley Cup Playoffs fashion, all series are tied 2-2. With a handful of best-of-three miniseries left to determine who moves out of the first round, are there any bets to make in the series betting markets?

Lightning @ Maple Leafs

While each game in this series produced a lopsided third-period score, the even-strength play has actually been as even as one would expect from a matchup lined very close to a pick'em before the series started. Here are the expected goals at five-on-five in each game:

While the Lightning and Maple Leafs have taken turns converting offensively - particularly on special teams - to create blowout conditions, the real outlier is that we haven't seen a tight game late.

Another surprise is that Toronto is still waiting to convert a high-danger chance at even strength, going 0-for-24. Tampa's had 12 more chances and three goals to show for it.

Best bet

They say you never get a second chance to make a first impression, but in this case, bettors get a second look to bet on Toronto to win the series. Before it started, I centered my betting on the premise of Leafs in seven, and nothing happened to change my position. At -120, you're getting a slightly improved price than a week ago, and if you didn't pull the trigger then, you can do so now.

Bruins @ Hurricanes

I've had more fun betting on hockey than during the first two games of this series:

With an expected goal share of 62.9% at five-on-five, the Bruins deserved to get at least a split with the Hurricanes. They didn't, but knowing what we know about predictive metrics, we were able to stay the course and score a couple of winners in Boston to draw even - and we don't have to sell the farm ... or the zoo.

Best bet

We liked the Bruins as short underdogs before the series started, thinking there was some value on them to win in six games. Both might come down to Tuesday night's Game 5, so you've got options if you missed out the first time. The Bruins are +120 on the moneyline to take a 3-2 series lead and +105 to win the series - both better numbers than from before the series. The only difference is that we have even more indication the Bruins are the better team when all things are equal. If you haven't backed them yet, now's the time.

Blues @ Wild

We thought there might be some value in a few strange results due to both squads' high-variance style of play. Sure enough, the better team at even strength in each game has a 1-3 record in this series - a signal of chaos - but the Blues and Wild each sit with two wins.

Using the numbers above to retroactively create a win probability, Minnesota should claim a series just shy of 57% of the time with this overall advantage in play. The implied odds of that percentage is -132. With the Wild priced at -140 to win the series and the frenetic nature of the results so far, there isn't a viable bet for me here.

Kings @ Oilers

After a lackluster first game allowed us to hop on the Oilers at a pick'em price, they rewarded that faith by outchancing the Kings in high-danger areas 31-17 at even strength in two easy wins. Even with a Game 4 loss, the Oilers are still -240 to win the series. That's probably excessive given the numbers above, but since we did our work making a good bet last week, there's no reason to add anything on Edmonton.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.