NHL Wednesday best bets: Expect a goaltending duel in New York
Our best bets are off to a roaring start in the third round, winning all three on Tuesday night. The Colorado Avalanche came through in regulation while Nazem Kadri and Evan Bouchard - both at plus money - hit the overs on their shot totals.
We'll look for similar results Wednesday night as the Eastern Conference Final begins.
Lightning (-125) @ Rangers (+105)
The total is a goal and a half less than it was in Tuesday night's game between the high-powered Colorado Avalanche and Edmonton Oilers - that still might not be enough.
It's no secret this series features the league's two best netminders in Andrei Vasilevskiy and Igor Shesterkin. The former is consistently great and yet he still finds a way to reach new heights come playoff time. Meanwhile, Shesterkin was the best goalie in the regular season from start to finish; he hasn't missed a beat through two rounds.
No matter how much firepower is lining up at the other side of the ice, scoring goals with any consistency is remarkably difficult against both of these goaltenders.
Making matters worse is the way the Tampa Bay Lightning and New York Rangers play. The Lightning are a very good defensive team that concedes shots at a low rate. They are seemingly always in position to block the ones that are attempted, making life easier on their superstar netminder.
The Rangers give up shots at a higher clip but they play a somewhat slow, bend-but-don't-break style at five-on-five and Shesterkin is almost always up to the task.
Given as much, it shouldn't be surprising their head-to-head meetings this year were rather uneventful. Two of the three games featured four goals or fewer.
Brian Elliott started the only game that went over the number and that, too, was a low-event contest; the two sides combined for just 51 shots. Nobody made saves, which shouldn't be a problem this time around.
Bet: Under 5.5 (-110)
Mika Zibanejad over 2.5 shots (-134)
The Lightning have given up quite a bit of volume to centers this postseason, conceding an average of 13.45 shots per game. The talent they've faced - headlined by Auston Matthews and Aleksander Barkov - has no doubt played a part in that, but it is the one position consistently generating opportunities.
That puts Zibanejad squarely on my radar. Not just because he is a high-end player at the position, but because of his shot profile. He's the go-to guy on the man advantage, leading the Rangers in shot attempts and scoring chances through two rounds. While the Lightning don't give up much at five-on-five, they take penalties at a pretty high rate and give up their share of shots down a man.
Zibanejad is as likely as anyone to take advantage of that. He's enjoyed success in head-to-head meetings this season as well, generating 11 shots through three games while going over the number in two.
Nikita Kucherov over 2.5 shots (-186)
Kucherov played the Rangers just once in the regular season. He registered three shots on seven attempts while logging more than 20 minutes of ice. Pretty good.
He should get plenty of looks at net against this Rangers team. They're conceding nearly 67 shot attempts per 60 at five-on-five, which would've ranked dead last in the regular season. Win or lose, they're likely to give up plenty of shots.
Unlike many superstars, playing on the road doesn't hurt Kucherov's ability to generate shots. Believe it or not, it has helped.
Kucherov has registered at least three shots in 21 of his last 30 road dates, good for a 70% success rate. In comparison, he has only gone over 56% of the time at home this season.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.