NHL Thursday best bets: Avalanche to take care of business at home
Our best bets are off to a roaring start in the third round, as we've won five of six plays through the first game of each series.
We'll look to keep the ball rolling with three more plays for Thursday night's game.
Oilers (+150) @ Avalanche (-180)
The Colorado Avalanche hit some ruts along the way - especially in the third period - but they picked up a multi-goal victory over the Edmonton Oilers last time out, and they were full value for it.
At five-on-five especially, the Avalanche controlled the run of play. They outshot the Oilers by 15, had more chances and high-danger chances, and controlled just under 55% of the expected goals share. Those are very good numbers considering the Avs were playing from ahead for much of the night.
While Darcy Kuemper's potential absence looms over Game 2, I don't think he is a big loss for the Avalanche at this point. He has not looked himself in the playoffs, ranking 12th among 16 eligible netminders (200-plus minutes) with a .908 save percentage at five-on-five. He looks even worse in terms of high-danger save percentage, sitting tied with Mike Smith for 13th.
It feels like Pavel Francouz has been talked about as a liability for years, but the numbers don't back up that perception.
He appeared in 20 games from Jan. 1 through the end of the regular season. Of the 44 goaltenders to do so, only four posted a better save percentage at five-on-five. He finished 12th of 44 in high-danger save percentage as well, so it's not as if he inflated his stats by stopping garbage. He also fared well against quality looks, and Edmonton will get plenty of those.
I'd take a healthy Francouz over Kuemper in his current state, which is clearly below 100%.
If Francouz can hold his own, Colorado's high-powered offense should be able to do enough to grab a 2-0 series lead.
Bet: Avalanche in regulation (-115)
Nazem Kadri over 3.5 shots (+110)
Kadri absolutely torched the Oilers in the first game of the series, scoring a goal while piling up nine shots on target. I don't expect that level of volume again, but I do like him to go over the number.
The Oilers have been bleeding shots to centers all throughout the playoffs. While they've faced some quality pivots (Anze Kopitar, Elias Lindholm, Phillip Danault, etc.), they haven't gone up against shoot-first players like Kadri or Nathan MacKinnon. Ranking 15th of 16 playoff teams in shots allowed per game to the position can't really be justified by the competition; it's just a team weakness.
Colorado was on the front foot for much of Game 1 and its top two centers still combined for 21 shot attempts. So long as the volume is there, we're going to continue attacking the Oilers with centers.
Evan Bouchard over 2.5 shots (+115)
On the surface, Bouchard's path to over 2.5 shots in Game 1 wasn't easy. He registered exactly three shots and it took until the third period for him to cross the finish line. There wasn't a lot of wiggle room - but there should have been.
Bouchard attempted a whopping eight shots in the game. Despite 10 Oilers logging more ice time, he finished tied for the team lead in attempts.
Most of the damage was done at five-on-five, where Bouchard generated six attempts. That's a good sign.
He didn't waste any time when he did get some work on the man advantage, as he recorded two attempts in just over 40 seconds. For comparison, Edmonton's top unit logged 3:13 on the power play and nobody was able to best Bouchard's volume.
He is not shy about pulling the trigger and Colorado has conceded shots to defensemen at a high rate all season long. Look for Bouchard to get involved once again.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.