NHL weekend best bets: Avalanche to put Oilers on the brink

Thursday night was another good one on the ice as we won two of three plays, pushing our record to 7-2 through the first few days of the third round.

We'll look to keep the train chugging along with three more plays for the weekend ahead.

Lightning (-130) @ Rangers (+110)
June 3, 8 p.m. ET

The Rangers made a statement in Game 1, protecting home ice by picking up a surprising four-goal victory over the Lightning.

It wasn't as one-sided as the scoreline made it appear. At five-on-five, the Lightning actually won the high-danger chance battle by four and controlled a 57% share of the expected goals.

That's not to say the Lightning were great, but they had more quality looks at Igor Shesterkin than the Rangers had at Andrei Vasilevskiy - even after adjusting for score effects.

The difference in the game, by and large, was that Shesterkin stood up to the task. That is nothing new, but Vasilevskiy is generally going to carry his weight too. He was atrocious in Game 1, conceding six goals on just 3.08 expected.

Vasilevskiy, and the Lightning as a whole, have shown us time and time again over the years that they consistently respond following playoff losses, no matter how bad things looked the game before.

It's not as if the Lightning have to start from scratch and have nothing to build off from the opener. They generated more scoring chances and it was their best players creating the bulk of them.

Nikita Kucherov and Steven Stamkos combined for 20 attempts on goal and 16 scoring chances. As good as Shesterkin is, you don't want players of that caliber sending so many quality shots his way.

Look for the Lightning to rebound with a win Friday night.

Bet: Lightning (-130)

Mika Zibanejad over 2.5 shots (-143)
June 3, 8 p.m. ET

We backed Zibanejad in the series opener, citing his past success against the Lightning and their recent inability to limit shots from opposing centers - at evens and while undermanned - as the primary reasons why.

Zibanejad came through for us with a remarkably strong performance, piling up nine attempts, seven shots on goal, and a pair of points en route to the blowout victory.

New York's star pivot did create his fair share of offense at five-on-five, hitting the over in that game state alone while attempting four shots. It was on the man advantage where he made the most noise, though, as the Rangers spoon-fed him one-timers every chance they had.

Zibanejad played 2:31 on the power play. In that limited time, he had five shot attempts, four shots on target, and a goal. Artemi Panarin was the only other Rangers player to record even two attempts on the PP; Zibanejad was very clearly the focal point.

The Lightning take penalties at an above-average rate, providing opponents with boosts to help cross the finish line with regard to shots. We'll go back to the well here with Zibanejad at home.

Avalanche (-130) @ Oilers (+110)
June 4, 8 p.m. ET

The Oilers are in a must-win situation. While they're unlikely to get past the Avalanche even if they win Game 3, a loss would essentially put their chances at zero.

They surely know that and will come out Saturday with a better effort than we saw Thursday. Even so, I'm skeptical it will be enough.

Colorado is too fast, too skilled, and too deep. The team is on a different level and that has been very evident through two games.

The Avalanche are up six goals on aggregate and have controlled better than 60% of the expected goals across all game states. They're getting the better of the Oilers at five-on-five and their special teams are nearly impossible to beat.

Depth has been a significant factor in this series. Colorado's second line has been lethal and the team is getting quality minutes from role players like Darren Helm, Logan O'Connor, and Andrew Cogliano. Meanwhile, Zack Kassian, Josh Archibald, Derek Ryan, and some of Edmonton's bottom-sixers have been borderline unplayable. They're getting exposed most times over the boards.

That puts even more minutes, and responsibility, on the shoulders of the Oilers' top players in what is an extremely fast-paced and taxing series.

Making matters worse is that Darcy Kuemper's injury isn't even turning into an advantage for Edmonton. Pavel Francouz was statistically one of the league's best from January onward and, for the most part, looked very comfortable in Game 2.

Outside of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl making superstar-level plays on a shift-to-shift basis, I don't really see Edmonton's path to victory. There are just too many disadvantages to overcome.

Expect a better effort from the Oilers, but still a losing one.

Bet: Avalanche (-130)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.