Overpayments during the NHL's signing season have become commonplace, with general managers seeking quick fixes to flawed rosters and doling out lucrative contracts they live to regret. We expect this summer's frenzy to be no different.
In no way, shape, or form are we suggesting the following five players won't be useful for a portion of their new contracts, and we're also open to the possibility they prove us wrong.
However, it's important to remember overpayments can be made in both term and money. Committing to a deal that runs too long is just as lethal as shelling out too much money in today's stagnant salary cap world.
Let's get to this year's list.
Ilya Mikheyev
Previous cap hit: $1.65 million
2021-22 stats: 53 GP, 21 G, 11 A
Mikheyev priced himself out of Toronto with a strong platform year and is reportedly asking for roughly $5 million per season on the open market. He's certainly earned a raise, but that's a hefty price tag for a middle-six player at best.
The 27-year-old is a strong two-way presence and reliable penalty killer with elite speed. If he could score 20 goals per year, he'd be worth every penny, but his jump in goals this past season could just as likely be a one-off as it was a sign of him becoming a legitimate offensive threat. Prior to 2021-22, Mikheyev's career high in goals was eight. Four of his tallies this past season came shorthanded, and while that's a valuable skill in his repertoire, it's not a steady indicator of future offensive ability.
Mikheyev can contribute a lot of good things to a team and has sterling underlying numbers - he posted a 58% expected goals rate in a primarily defensive role last season - to back up his value. But paying depth players too much money has scuppered countless teams during the salary-cap era, and a $5-million deal with term for Mikheyev could easily age poorly.
Evander Kane
Previous cap hit: $2.1 million
2021-22 stats: 43 GP, 22 G, 17 A
Kane was a great fit for the Oilers this past season on a prorated contract. He provided some much-needed secondary scoring to an Edmonton team that looked like it reached a new level after hiring Jay Woodcroft as head coach. Kane carried his strong play into the playoffs, scoring 13 goals in 15 games.
The soon-to-be 31-year-old reminded the hockey world he can play after a messy split from the San Jose Sharks, but rewarding him with a pricey long-term deal would be a mistake. On top of his off-ice transgressions - of which there have been plenty over his 13-year career - his productive 2021-22 carries some red flags. Kane only spent 79 minutes at five-on-five without one of Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl, and his 14.5 shooting percentage was significantly higher than any number he's posted before.
If the Oilers can find a way to retain Kane on a short, cheap deal, he'd remain a solid fit. But any team on the open market ready to pay the aging power forward anything close to his previous cap hit of $7 million will regret it sooner than later.
John Klingberg
Previous cap hit: $4.25 million
2021-22 stats: 74 GP, 6 G, 41 A
Klingberg's departure from the Stars has felt imminent for months. A reported trade request, buzz at the trade deadline, and unsuccessful extension negotiations all led to the soon-to-be 30-year-old being one of the top defensemen available this summer in a relatively weak market at his position.
The swift-skating Swede was once one of the league's premier offensive blue-liners, and while he remains efficient in that regard, a concerning decline in his defensive game over recent seasons makes an expensive, long-term contract a considerable gamble. Since notching a career-high 67 points in 2017-18, Klingberg's impact on his own end has dipped drastically. In 2021-22, he posted career lows in goals for percentage (44.26%) and expected goals against per 60 (2.77).
Evolving-Hockey projects Klingberg to earn nearly $7 million annually on his next deal, which is a high price for an aging power-play specialist. Breaking the bank for a big-minute defenseman who struggles to keep the puck out of his own net could be a recipe for disaster.
Nazem Kadri
Previous cap hit: $4.5 million
2021-22 stats: 71 GP, 28 G, 59 A
It's Kadri's time to cash in. He's been on a team-friendly deal since inking a six-year pact with the Maple Leafs in 2016, and his value has never been higher. He's fresh off a Stanley Cup win and a career season with 87 points for a dominant Avalanche squad.
If newly minted general manager Chris MacFarland can convince Kadri to stay in Colorado with a modest raise and a shot at a few more rings, the fiery pivot is likely to live up to the contract value. If he enters the open market instead, there's a strong chance Kadri ends up overpaid. It's not common for 31-year-olds to transform into elite offensive players, and Kadri is highly unlikely to be insulated by a team as deep as the Avalanche at even strength or on the power play if he suits up elsewhere come October.
There's no question Kadri's game features plenty of enviable traits, and he's known to love proving naysayers wrong, but suitors should be wary of paying top-end money for a player who significantly outperformed his career averages in a contract year.
Ryan Strome
Previous cap hit: $4.5 million
2021-22 stats: 74 GP, 21 G, 33 A
Strome is one of the best centers available in a thin market, but determining appropriate value for the Rangers' second-line staple is tricky. Strome has been productive since arriving in the Big Apple, registering 162 points in 200 games over the past three seasons while playing a defensively responsible game. However, he's spent the majority of his minutes with superstar Artemi Panarin. Will he be the same player without an elite playmaker on his wing?
Here are Strome's numbers with and without the "Breadman" by his side since 2019-20.
| With Panarin | Stat | Without Panarin |
|---|---|---|
| 2018:00 | Minutes | 722:43 |
| 50.37% | CF% | 45.78% |
| 60.85% | GF% | 48.57% |
| 51.37% | XG% | 49.74% |
Centers are always in demand, and Strome is a decent one. Teams that need depth down the middle could be in for a rude awakening, though, if they sign Strome without a strong supporting cast in place.
(Advanced stats source: Evolving-Hockey, Natural Stat Trick)