Hart Trophy Power Rankings: Matthews, McDavid to battle again

The NHL season is nearly upon us, so it's time to take an early look at the Hart Memorial Trophy contenders.

The top dogs from last season are poised to jockey for MVP honors once again, but there should be some movement on the list with a new potential finalist and a past one getting back into the mix.

Johnny Gaudreau finished fourth last season and would normally have an even stronger case with less help around him. But the Columbus Blue Jackets will be hard-pressed to make the playoffs in the upcoming campaign. That's essentially a prerequisite for the Hart - for better or worse - so it'll likely take him out of the running unless his new club surprises.

Here are our top five MVP candidates entering the season.

All stats in charts are from 2021-22

5. Igor Shesterkin

Shesterkin finished third in the voting for this award last season, but he didn't slide down this list by any real fault of his own. The New York Rangers goaltender is our preseason favorite to repeat as the Vezina Trophy recipient, and for good reason.

The Russian, who'll turn 27 in late December, led all qualified netminders in save percentage in 2021-22. He saved the second-most goals above expected and the third-most above average. Shesterkin was the biggest reason the Rangers exceeded expectations, especially considering the team's defensive flaws.

The Blueshirts' core remains intact, but they lost more of their supporting cast than they gained in free agency. So some regression could seep in for the team as a whole, especially considering its biggest Metropolitan Division rivals all got better. Still, Shesterkin will be in the Hart conversation if he plays at anywhere near the level he achieved a season ago. He may simply be overshadowed by the other candidates.

4. Nathan MacKinnon

Voters don't factor in postseason play. But if MacKinnon can carry his playoff performance into the 2022-23 regular season and once again lead the Colorado Avalanche to a strong finish, he'll make a triumphant return to the MVP hunt.

MacKinnon's points-per-game rate ranked among the league leaders during the last regular season, but missing 17 games all but disqualified him from Hart contention. Cale Makar's immense contributions also hurt MacKinnon's case, but the center's value is undeniable regardless of his teammate's exploits.

If MacKinnon can stay healthy for the vast majority of the upcoming campaign and continue to play as well as he did last season, the three-time Hart finalist will be a worthy contender.

3. Kirill Kaprizov

Kaprizov has a legitimate shot to be among the leaders in the MVP race this season for a couple of reasons.

The biggest one is the fact that the Minnesota Wild traded their second-best forward, Kevin Fiala, to the Los Angeles Kings in June. Much like Gaudreau and the Blue Jackets, Kaprizov won't have as much assistance this season. The difference is that the Wild are a better team that's more likely to make the playoffs.

The other reason is that Kaprizov is coming off a huge season individually. The Russian tied for fifth in the NHL in goals and ranked fifth in points. He's adept at creating offense and making plays regardless of who his teammates are, so he should excel even without Fiala in the fold. If Kaprizov can maintain his 2021-22 form and play at a much higher level than the other Wild skaters, he'll be firmly entrenched in the Hart discussion.

2. Connor McDavid

McDavid would've been a shoo-in to claim this award for the third time and the second time in as many years if not for the No. 1 name on this list. The Edmonton Oilers superstar won the Art Ross Trophy for the second straight season and the fourth time in total.

Yes, McDavid plays on the same team as Leon Draisaitl, who's been nearly as dominant. But analytics consistently show McDavid has helped Draisaitl more than the other way around. There's a reason McDavid got 1,111 points in MVP voting compared to Draisaitl's 28 in 2021-22.

Assuming McDavid keeps producing video game numbers - of both the conventional and underlying varieties - and the Oilers get back to the playoffs this season, there's no reason to believe the Edmonton captain won't be among the top Hart contenders.

1. Auston Matthews

Matthews bested McDavid by over 500 points in 2021-22 MVP voting, and that wasn't a very controversial result. The Toronto Maple Leafs sniper repeated as the Maurice "Rocket" Richard Trophy winner despite missing nine games. A whopping 44 of his 60 goals came at even strength, which also led the league.

But it wasn't just goal-scoring that won him the Hart last season, and it won't be the sole reason he's the front-runner entering this one. Matthews made big strides defensively and was a possession monster. The otherworldly American led the NHL in wins above replacement and goals above replacement while ranking third in five-on-five expected goals for percentage among those with at least 600 minutes played in those situations.

Matthews' situation hasn't changed much for 2022-23; he'll have the same linemates, and the Leafs' skaters won't look too different aside from an improved bottom six. He could even exceed his 2021-22 production if he can avoid injury. So it's entirely conceivable that the 25-year-old leads the pack in the MVP race once again.

(Analytics sources: Natural Stat Trick, Evolving-Hockey)