NHL Thursday best bets: Blues to snap lengthly losing streak vs. Sharks
We split our best bets Wednesday night. The Pittsburgh Penguins responded in a big way, snapping their losing streak with a three-goal win over the undermanned Washington Capitals.
Unfortunately, the Carolina Hurricanes - despite generating 40 shots and 4.39 expected goals - were blanked by Spencer Knight and the Florida Panthers.
Let's dive into our bets bets for Thursday's big slate as we look for a clean 2-0 night.
Coyotes (+220) @ Islanders (-270)
The New York Islanders are sizzling hot. They won seven of the last eight games and now host one of the worst teams in hockey.
While the Arizona Coyotes won two in a row and are only one game under .500, they very much look like the bottom-feeder everyone expected them to be.
At five-on-five, they've controlled only 35% of the expected goal share and 32% of the high-danger chances. To put how bad that is into perspective, last year's version of the Coyotes - who won 25 games - came in above 42% in both categories.
New York hasn't been winning by dominating in the shot department. It's more or less traded opportunities and relied on its improved rush offense - and strong goaltending - to see them through. And it has worked!
If the Islanders can string together wins at a high clip while coming out around even in shots and chances, it's exciting to think about what they can do when they're able to spend most of every shift on the front foot.
They'll almost certainly have that opportunity tonight. Forget winning the high-danger chance battle - the best the Coyotes have done in any game this season is draw even.
New York should dominate the run of play. With Ilya Sorokin between the pipes, the Coyotes probably can't rely on opportunistic finishing - or a soft goal - to hang around.
I like the Islanders to win convincingly in this spot - even more so if Connor Ingram gets the nod in goal for the Coyotes.
Bet: Islanders -1.5 (-110)
Sharks (+135) @ Blues (-155)
The St. Louis Blues have been bad this season. Very bad. And yet they still don't deserve results this bad.
Through 11 games, they conceded 15 more high-danger chances than they generated at five-on-five. That sounds like a fairly big number, but it equates to a net of minus-1.36 high-danger chances per game.
While that differential isn't ideal, it's not exactly a huge number and certainly not what you'd expect from a team that dropped eight in a row.
Don't get me wrong: St. Louis hasn't played well at full strength, and its special teams aren't good either. But the Blues aren't getting railroaded on a nightly basis - they sits 21st in expected goals for percentage.
It's not an exaggeration to say their biggest problem right now is that they simply can't finish plays off. A season ago, they led the NHL with a 10.42 shooting percentage at five-on-five.
This year - with a very similar roster - St. Louis sits dead last, converting on just 5.51% of its shots.
I expected regression, especially without David Perron, but it'd be a huge stretch to say his departure should result in going from first to worst.
The Blues still have Robert Thomas, Vladimir Tarasenko, Jordan Kyrou, Brayden Schenn, and Pavel Buchnevich, among others. Sooner or later, the pucks are going to start going in for those guys.
The San Jose Sharks appear to be doing the Blues a favor to try and speed up the process. James Reimer (plus-3.9 goals saved above expected) is getting the night off, which means Kaapo Kahkonen will earn the nod in goal.
Kahkonen owns a putrid .878 save percentage and conceded 6.2 more goals than expected through just five starts. His average of minus-1.2 GSAE per 60 minutes ranks 44th among 47 goaltenders who've played in at least five games this campaign.
Kahkonen is really, really, struggling to stop pucks, and the Blues are converting at an unsustainably low rate. This could be just what the doctor ordered.
Bet: Blues in regulation (-105)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.