NHL weekend best bets: Fade the Coyotes in Arizona

Thursday night was a successful one on the ice. The Panthers let us down against the Penguins, but we hit all three player props and a sweat-free under in Washington to go 4-1 overall.

We'll look to pick up where we left off with a couple plays for the weekend slate.

Islanders (-185) @ Coyotes (+165)
Dec. 16, 9:30 p.m. EST

There's bad, and then there's the Coyotes. They have won just nine of 27 games and rank dead last in expected goal share (38.44%) at five-on-five.

What's crazy is things would be even worse if not for Karel Vejmelka. He owns a .913 save percentage this season - well above the league average of .900 - and ranks first among all goaltenders in goals saved above expected.

Vejmelka's absurd +16.3 mark through 20 games slots him ahead of even Ilya Sorokin, Connor Hellebuyck, and Carter Hart.

If he is playing so well, why am I targeting the Coyotes? Well, the team still leaves the ice with a loss more often than not, even in Vejmelka's starts. Not to mention how difficult it'll be for him to sustain such strong numbers over a full season behind such a putrid squad - the wear and tear will take its toll sooner than later.

The Islanders are also one of the few sides with a starting netminder who can go toe-to-toe with the version of Vejmelka we have seen this campaign. Sorokin currently ranks third in GSAE, and he was among the league leaders a season ago. He's a true star in the net.

If he can wipe out the general advantage Arizona's had in goal this year - and he is more than capable - that puts things in the hands of the skaters, and I much prefer New York's.

The Islanders have been slightly up and down of late, but even so, there's a lot more to like in their statistical profile. They rank 12th in high-danger chance share at five-on-five over the last 10 games, while the Coyotes sit 32nd.

New York should be able to dominate the run of play, and as mentioned, Arizona can't bank on the edge they've had to fall back on in goal most nights.

Look for Mathew Barzal, Brock Nelson, Noah Dobson, and the team's offensive drivers to have a good night and lead the Isles to a victory inside 60 minutes.

Bet: Islanders in regulation (-115)

Sabres (TBD) @ Coyotes (TBD)
Dec. 17, 9:00 p.m. EST

One of the only things worse than the Coyotes is the Coyotes without Vejmelka.

Arizona is a nine-win club, with Vejmelka starting the majority of games and leading the league in GSAE. It's not hard to imagine what the team is like without him.

Check that - we don't have to imagine. We know what the Coyotes are like, and the picture is not pretty.

Backup netminder Connor Ingram is sporting a 1-6-1 record and an .870 save percentage. He has conceded at least three goals in every single game this season and slots 63rd among 66 netminders in GSAE per start on a per-game basis. He is getting lit up nightly, no matter the opponent.

I expect that trend to continue Saturday night against the Sabres. While their record isn't all that impressive, there is a lot to like about their team.

Tage Thompson and Rasmus Dahlin continue to hit new levels, while youngsters like Dylan Cozens, Jack Quinn, and Owen Power have really stepped up and given the team a jolt in the arm.

The Sabres' share of the Grade A chances is 12% above the Coyotes' over the last 10 contests, and the former has significantly more true talent.

Factor in facing the Coyotes in a back-to-back situation and arguably the league's worst backup in Ingram, and it's easy to envision Buffalo running Arizona over in its own building.

Back the Sabres inside 60 minutes.

Bet: Sabres in regulation (good to -135)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.