NHL weekend best bets: Getting Wild in St. Louis
We split our best bets Thursday night. The Buffalo Sabres handled the Detroit Red Wings on home soil, but the New York Rangers were unable to hold on to their lead in Tampa Bay and eventually lost to the Lightning in a shootout.
We'll set our sights higher and aim to end the year in style with a couple plays for the weekend ahead.
Predators (-165) @ Ducks (+135)
Dec. 30, 5 p.m. EST
The Anaheim Ducks have a strong case as the league's worst team. They rank dead last in regulation wins, goals against, goal differential, and shot suppression.
Anaheim is outshot by nearly 10 per contest. That clearly makes it very difficult to win games - especially when going up against a high-end goaltender.
That'll be the case Friday against Juuse Saros - or Kevin Lankinen - and the Nashville Predators.
Saros was a Vezina finalist a season ago. While his numbers are down a little bit this year, his .914 save percentage is still way above the league average of .900. Saros also grades out well in goals saved above expectation, having stopped 11.8. That slots him just below all-world goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy.
If the team elects to rest Saros and go with Lankinen, my confidence remains high. Lankinen only started eight games, but his GSAE per start ranks near the top of the league. Even if there's some regression, he's playing well enough to do the job against Anaheim.
The Predators - like basically every team - should be able to dominate the run of play and get a significant edge in chances.
For the Ducks to prevail, they'll likely have to convert their shots at a high clip. I don't see that happening against Saros or Lankinen. Look for the starter - whoever it may be - to lock things down between the pipes and ensure all the advantages the Predators have are reflected on the scoreboard.
Bet: Predators in regulation (+100)
Wild (TBD) @ Blues (TBD)
Dec. 31, 6 p.m. EST
The St. Louis Blues have come out of another one of their miserable spells and, on the surface, appear to be righting the ship.
They own a 5-2-3 record over the last 10 games and are right back in the thick of the playoff race.
I think this run has largely been smoke and mirrors, though. The Blues controlled just over 43% of the high-danger chances and expected goal share over the last 10 games.
St. Louis ranks 27th in both categories, surrounded by the likes of Anaheim, the Chicago Blackhawks, Columbus Blue Jackets, and Arizona Coyotes. That's not company you want to be keeping if you have playoff aspirations.
Although Torey Krug isn't the player he once was, he produced at a 45-point pace this season and is one of the only true puck-movers the Blues have on defense. His absence will be felt.
The Minnesota Wild are hardly stomping opponents right now, but they sit at least 10 slots ahead of the Blues in high-danger chance share and expected goal share at five-on-five.
Minnesota also sits third in expected goal generation on the power play over the last 10 games. It's one of the few teams that could really cause problems for the Blues' strong penalty kill.
While the Wild lost a whopping nine of the last 10 games against the Blues, I think they'll leave St. Louis with a result.
Bet: Wild (expected line: -110)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.