NHL weekend best bets: Don't expect fireworks in Toronto
We have a busy weekend of hockey ahead of us with 16 games scheduled over the next couple of days. Let's get right into our best bets.
Wild (+180) @ Maple Leafs (-210)
The Wild are having a miserable time offensively right now. Although they have won four consecutive games, they've only scored more than three goals once since the middle of January.
As such, it should be no surprise that 12 of their last 13 games have gone under 6.5 goals, and I don't expect that to change Friday night in Toronto.
For one, both teams are above average defensively. At five-on-five, the Wild rank fifth in expected goals against per 60 this season, while the Maple Leafs rank fifth over the past 10 games.
With the Wild in a back-to-back situation and their offense struggling, they'll likely lean on their defense and try to keep this game as compact as possible. If and when breakdowns do arise, the goaltending should hold up.
Filip Gustavsson has very quietly been one of the better goaltenders in the NHL this season. While that may seem like an egregious claim on the surface, the numbers support it.
He owns a remarkable .928 save percentage through 26 starts and is one of the leaders in goals saved above expected. Gustavsson slots seventh in total GSAE and sits only behind Linus Ullmark and Ilya Sorokin on a per-game basis.
At the other end, Ilya Samsonov's numbers have tailed off a little bit of late, but they're still well above average for the season. He's more than capable of holding his own against this anemic Wild attack.
Some of the top-tier finishers in this game could make things a little sweaty, but with strong defense and goaltending and a high total, there's plenty of reason to believe this game goes under the number.
Bet: Under 6.5 (-130)
Oilers (TBD) @ Blue Jackets (TBD)
I love, love, love what I'm seeing from the Oilers. They've picked up points in nine of the last 10 games and the numbers suggest that is no fluke.
At five-on-five, they have controlled a whopping 59% of the expected goals during this stretch, which is second to only the Hurricanes.
It doesn't take a rocket scientist to know a team with superstars like Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl will pile up the points when consistently outchancing the opposition. That's what we're seeing right now.
There is every reason to believe their dominance will continue against the Blue Jackets. Columbus has some of the worst underlying numbers in the league this season and things will likely continue to get worse as the team subtracts players from the lineup leading up to the trade deadline.
Elvis Merzlikins getting the start in this game would be a nice cherry on top. The Jackets generally switch goaltenders following a loss. With Joonas Korpisalo losing last time out, we should see Merzlikins back between the pipes in this game.
Among 63 netminders with at least 15 appearances this season, Merzlikins ranks dead last in goals saved above expected per start. He has largely played very poorly and I don't see that changing against the kind of firepower Edmonton possesses.
Bet: Oilers -1.5 (would play to -120)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.