NHL weekend best bets: Maple Leafs to bounce back in Columbus
We have a busy weekend of hockey ahead of us, with 18 games over the next couple of days.
Let's dive into two that stand out from the pack.
Maple Leafs (-250) @ Blue Jackets (+210)
Feb. 10, 7 p.m. ET
For years, the Maple Leafs have played down to their competition and failed to come through when enormously favored. Even without Auston Matthews, I think they're going to buck the trend and pick up a convincing win over the Blue Jackets.
They really seem to be buying what Sheldon Keefe is selling this season, playing a more committed defensive game. That, coupled with strong goaltending, is why only three teams - the Bruins, Hurricanes, and Stars - have done a better job of limiting goals at five-on-five.
That should spell trouble for a Blue Jackets team that has struggled immensely to create offense at five-on-five. Over the last 10 games, they've generated only 9.12 high-danger chances per 60, which is dead last in the league.
While the Jackets have a couple of dynamic stars on the wing, their forward group as a whole is rather shallow. Not to mention, they don't really have players on the back end right now, with Zach Werenski, Jake Bean, and, more recently, Adam Boqvist out of the lineup due to injuries.
I don't see them creating much against a fairly stout Maple Leafs team that should be chomping at the bit following an extended break.
Matthews' absence is unlikely to be problematic in this game as well. The Leafs have generated 2.90 expected goals per 60 since he left the lineup, which is directly in line with their season average of 2.86.
They should have no problem facilitating chances - and finishing them - against a Blue Jackets team that allows 3.83 goals per 60 minutes.
Bet: Maple Leafs -1.5 (-105)
Devils (TBD) @ Wild (TBD)
Feb. 11, 8 p.m. ET
The Devils are on a 9-1-1 run but haven't played nearly as well as the results indicate. Not even close.
At five-on-five, they have controlled just 44.2% of the expected goals, putting them bottom-five in the NHL during that span.
The only teams that have performed worse - and not by much in that category - are the Blackhawks, Ducks, Canadiens, and Blues: four bad teams that'll be selling everything they can at the deadline.
In terms of strictly scoring chances, the Devils have posted a minus-60 differential at five-on-five during this hot streak.
So, how have they been winning? The recipe is simple: Jack Hughes, goaltending, and overtime luck (they've won five of six).
Hughes missed Thursday night's affair - another in which the Devils were noticeably out-chanced - but prior to that, he accumulated 18 points over a 10-game period. Every time the Devils needed a play, he came up with one.
The Devils don't currently have the budding superstar available to bail them out. That's a huge factor.
It's also fair to expect a dip in goaltending performance sooner rather than later. With respect to Vitek Vanecek, who I really like, and Mackenzie Blackwood, they're not Andrei Vasilevskiy and Igor Shesterkin. It's not reasonable for them to shave an average of a goal off the expected output each time out, which has been the case of late.
I know the Wild haven't exactly been lighting it up of late and are dealing with some problems of their own.
But the Devils' underlying metrics are even worse. With Hughes out of the lineup and the goaltending likely due for a spell of lesser play, this feels like a spot where their issues will catch up to them.
Bet: Wild (likely in the -125 range)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.