NHL weekly betting guide: True moneylines for every game

Last week we got deep into the weeds - or maybe it was the everglades? - by evaluating how the betting market should have reacted to the Panthers losing top defenseman Aaron Ekblad for 11 games. This week, we'll head upstate to Tampa Bay to look at the Lightning's goaltenders.

Andrei Vasilevskiy, 28, has won everything you can win as a goaltender - Vezina Trophy, Conn Smythe Trophy, multiple-time All-Star, etc. He's got an outstanding 2.51 goals against average over nine seasons and a career save percentage of .919. His backup Brian Elliott actually has pretty similar career numbers at 2.54/.910, respectively, but at 37 years old, he's best left for limited use.

The Lightning were set to play the Stars last week, but oddsmakers didn't know who would start in goal for Tampa. The opening line suggested Vasilevskiy was in, but the team announced around 10:30 a.m. on Tuesday that Elliott would be between the pipes.

Here's how the Lightning's moneyline odds looked:

What's cool about watching those numbers change is that you can tell the market thinks the Lightning are about 5% more likely to win with Vasilevskiy than with Elliott in a one-game situation by translating the moneyline into an implied win probability (IWP).

While that may feel low, you have to remember the backup goaltender is usually a rested professional motivated for a rare start, and his teammates may feel an intrinsic need to play harder and more defensively to keep shots down. In turn, just because the No. 1 goaltender is in doesn't mean he's 100% or not battling a crisis of confidence. In either case, there's also an element of luck when it comes to the bounces of a puck.

Elliott and the Lightning beat the Stars that night in overtime despite allowing four goals. Even more surprisingly, Elliott improved to 4-1 on the moneyline this season - a much better win rate than Vasilevskiy's 7-6 record. Maybe that's a fluke - a product of a small sample size - but Elliott's saved 0.33 goals above expectation (GSAx) per game, while "Vassy" has a 0.27 GSAx per game.

We always want to get the best price possible on our bets - that's the point of this guide - but understanding that all hope is not lost when the backup gets the call is another element to betting on the NHL.

The recipe

We started the campaign using regular-season point totals as a baseline for rating teams since it's still our best measurement. Throughout the campaign, we'll adjust club ratings using on-ice metrics to remove the cognitive bias of win-loss records, which various outliers like special teams results, poor goaltending performances, and other unreliable events - such as three-on-three overtime and the shootout - can skew.

The cheat sheet

There are no bad bets at the right price, but how do we know what a good price is?

The following includes my fair price on the games (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I'd need to bet either side. I only need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. For games I project to be closer to a coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough for a worthwhile wager. I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a team playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and a 3% consideration for a team on the second leg of a back-to-back without travel. When it comes to injured players, I do my best to estimate the impact on their team's win probability.

When the betting markets open up the night before, you can compare those prices with our "price to bet" column to see if you're getting any value with either side's moneyline. There's also a possibility that a moneyline moves into a betable range at some point between market open and puck drop.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.