NHL Thursday best bets: Home cooking

Wednesday was another good night for our best bets as the Nashville Predators took care of business inside regulation (-110) and the underdog Edmonton Oilers (+120) picked up a multi-goal victory in Dallas. Those two wins push our best bets to 5-1 on the week.

Let's keep the ball rolling in the right direction with two plays for Thursday night's slate of games.

Capitals (-115) @ Senators (-105)

We successfully targeted the Ottawa Senators on Tuesday night when Tim Stutzle was out of the lineup. The expectation is that he'll be back centering the top line tonight, which means there's value in backing Ottawa.

The Senators are a completely different team with Stutzle in the lineup. Not only is he a fantastic player in his own right, but he also helps get the most out of Ottawa's other top players.

Brady Tkachuk and Claude Giroux posted a putrid 37.5% expected goal share when Derick Brassard centered them on the top line. That trio was completely destroyed.

With Stutzle playing alongside Tkachuk and Giroux, the Senators have a whopping 66.8% expected goal share. That's over the span of 170-plus minutes, so it's not as if we're just looking at a sample size of a few games. They've been dominant over the long haul.

Stutzle's presence makes Ottawa's top line one of the best in the league and gives it a very potent top six with Alex DeBrincat, Shane Pinto, and Drake Batherson skating on the second unit.

They're now well-equipped to generate five-on-five offense against a stout defensive team like the Washington Capitals.

It's important to note that this is also a good spot for Ottawa's lethal power play. Over the last 10 games, the Capitals' penalty kill ranks 23rd in high-danger chances against and 25th in expected goals against, on a per-60-minute basis.

Ottawa's power play sits fourth in expected goals and actual goals during the same period.

I expect the offense to lead the charge and get the Senators back in the win column.

Bet: Senators (-105)

Flames (-120) @ Kings (+100)

The Calgary Flames own a 5-2-3 record over their last 10 games but haven't been all that impressive.

Though they routinely win the shot battle rather convincingly, they do so by way of a quantity-over-quality approach.

Despite controlling more than 56% of the five-on-five shot attempts over the last 10 - good for first in the NHL - they come in around 47% with high-danger chances. They're getting more shots, but the opposing team often comes out with the edge in quality looks.

That stems mostly from an inability to really break teams down and generate grade A opportunities. Only seven teams created fewer high-danger chances at five-on-five over the last 10 games, just one of which is currently holding onto a playoff spot.

I'm more impressed by the Los Angeles Kings' recent work. They generated 106 high-danger looks in that time (ninth most) and controlled over 54% of the high-danger opportunities. Impressive numbers.

The Kings should be able to get the better of the Flames at five-on-five - although Chris Tanev's recent return will complicate their task - and there's also real potential for the power play to make noise.

Beyond the Anaheim Ducks, no team spent more time shorthanded than Calgary over the last 10. Penalty troubles are nothing new for the Flames, who've been one of the NHL's least-disciplined teams all season.

If the goaltending can hold up, I think the Kings have a strong chance of coming through at home.

Bet: Kings (+100)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.