NHL weekly betting guide: True moneylines for every game

The NHL had its Christmas break, but with the season poised to resume, I've got a gift for you: a chance to complain.

The whole "peace on earth, goodwill toward men" thing is over for another year, so without further adieu, here's my rating for each team from now through the rest of the year. Perfect for something to grumble about.

How to read the ratings:

As usual, current standings are meaningless. That shootout win your favorite team earned in October doesn't help win games in February. This is not about ranking teams to this point; it's about who will be profitable from Dec. 27 to April 14.

A rating of 1.00 represents a league-average team. If your favorite team gets a higher rating - a 1.05, for example - that club can be expected to be 5% better than a league-average team from here on out. In turn, squads rated at 0.95 are expected to be 5% worse than the average team. In betting terms, a team that's 5% better than its opponent would be -111 on the moneyline before a sportsbook applies the vigorish.

The left column shows where teams stood before the season. The column on the right illustrates how perceptions have changed and expectations going forward.

The recipe

We started the campaign using regular-season point totals as a baseline for rating teams since it's still our best measurement. Throughout the campaign, we'll adjust club ratings using on-ice metrics to remove the cognitive bias of win-loss records, which can be skewed by outliers like special-teams results, poor goaltending performances, and other unreliable events.

The cheat sheet

There are no bad bets at the right price, but how do we know what a good price is?

The following includes my fair price on the games (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I'd need to bet either side. I only need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. For games I project to be closer to a coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough for a worthwhile wager. I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a team playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and a 3% consideration for a team on the second leg of a back-to-back without travel. When it comes to injured players, I do my best to estimate the impact on their team's win probability.

When the betting markets open up the night before, you can compare those prices with our "price to bet" column to see if you're getting any value with either side's moneyline. There's also a possibility that a moneyline moves into a bet-friendly range at some point between market open and puck drop.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.