Vezina Trophy Rankings: Vasilevskiy joins the mix as top 3 gets shake-up
Welcome to the third in-season edition of theScore's 2022-23 Vezina Trophy Rankings. Only one goalie remains in the same spot as December's list, while a veteran debutant and a brand new No. 1 candidate shake things up.
Each of our candidates have been scorching hot over the past few weeks and are separated by the slimmest of margins. Here's how things stand as we wade into 2023.
GSAA = Goals saved above average
GSAx = Goals saved above expected
5. Andrei Vasilevskiy, Lightning
Previous rank: N/A
| Record | GAA | SV% | GSAA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16-9-1 | 2.42 | .921 | 12.69 | 14.34 |
Vasilevskiy cracked our preseason rankings based on his reputation as one of this generation's top goalies, but he hadn't made the cut since. Then the Lightning backstop officially threw his hat into the ring with a dominant stretch since our last list (Dec. 7) in which he went 6-1 with a .952 save percentage and 1.56 goals-against average. Vasilevskiy is now in the top five this season in all the stats in the chart above aside from GSAx, where he ranks sixth. The 2019 Vezina winner has proven capable of putting up eye-popping numbers for long stretches over the course of his Hall of Fame career, and he could easily wind up a finalist for the fifth time in six years if he stays close to his current form.
4. Jake Oettinger, Stars
Previous rank: 4th
| Record | GAA | SV% | GSAA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17-6-3 | 2.39 | .920 | 11.54 | 15.29 |
Oettinger has been a mainstay on our lists this season, but he comes in fourth once again because the Stars are far superior defensively to the teams featuring two of our other candidates. Oettinger's faced fewer expected goals than all but two goalies in our rankings and is last among our five netminders in GSAA. Both factors hurt his chances at hardware for the time being, but he's still the backbone of a division-leading team and is near the top of the list for all the key goaltending stats. The 24-year-old has half the season left to work his way into the top three, and even if he doesn't, Oettinger has proven he belongs in the conversation as one of the NHL's best between the pipes.
3. Connor Hellebuyck, Jets
Previous rank: 2nd
| Record | GAA | SV% | GSAA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19-9-1 | 2.31 | .928 | 21.41 | 20.83 |
Hellebuyck dropped a spot this month, but it's hardly his fault. He and our No. 2 have been practically interchangeable all season. The Jets superstar gets the short end of the stick this time mainly due to a ridiculous surge from our new No. 1. Hellebuyck is posting Herculean numbers on a Winnipeg team that ranks 20th in expected goals and has better stats across the board than he did in his Vezina-worthy 2020 campaign. He's nearly matched his total GSAA (22.4) from the award-winning season in 29 fewer starts, and he should have no problem maintaining his stellar play.
2. Ilya Sorokin, Islanders
Previous rank: 1st
| Record | GAA | SV% | GSAA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14-12-1 | 2.29 | .926 | 17.7 | 25.93 |
Sorokin and Hellebuyck have produced very similar campaigns, and their teams are in very similar positions in the standings, but the Islanders stalwart gets the razor-thin edge due to playing in a better division and besting Winnipeg's No. 1 in a few key stats. Sorokin's GSAx on the season is tops in the NHL, and in 10 games played for both goaltenders since our last edition - where Sorokin also earned a slight edge - Long Island's backstop has slightly better numbers than Hellebuyck in each of the stats we rely on to form our rankings. Both goalies are clearly among the best in the league, and they're likely to keep battling for position near the top of our list for the remainder of the season.
1. Linus Ullmark, Bruins
Previous rank: 3rd
| Record | GAA | SV% | GSAA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21-1-1 | 1.86 | .939 | 23.29 | 18.98 |
It's gotten to the point where we can't place Ullmark anywhere but No. 1. Sure, he may play for the best team in the league, but he's only lost a single game in regulation this season while leading the NHL in save percentage, goals-against average, and goals saved above average. If voting was held today, he might win unanimously - and definitely would if he'd converted his empty-net attempt at the Winter Classic. We've wondered all season when, and how severely, Ullmark and Boston may regress, but at nearly the halfway mark, there's no indication of an impending decline. The netminder's play would have to fall off a cliff for him to relinquish the top spot on our list.
(Stats source: Evolving-Hockey)