NHL Thursday best bets: Capitals to swarm Blue Jackets
Wednesday was a great one for our best bets as we swept the board. Despite a surprise start from Brian Elliott, our under of 6.5 goals in Minnesota came through. We also hit both player props.
We'll look to keep the ball moving in the right direction with a pair of sides for Thursday's slate.
Capitals (-200) @ Blue Jackets (+170)
The Washington Capitals are on a roll. They have won seven of the last 10 games and collected at least a point in nine of them.
Their underlying process in that time has been strong, as they slot seventh with an expected goal share above 55% at five-on-five. They are always dangerous on the power play - and the goaltending is potent - so the Capitals are evidently an extremely difficult team to deal with when getting the job done at full-strength.
We have every reason to believe they can deliver Thursday night in Columbus. For one, T.J. Oshie is expected to return and skate alongside Marcus Johansson and Lars Eller on the third line. His presence makes that unit a lot more formidable, giving the Capitals three lines with legitimate scoring threats. He'll give a strong power play an extra little boost.
The Blue Jackets are not a good five-on-five team, especially defensively. Only the Anaheim Ducks have given up Grade A chances at a higher clip than the Blue Jackets.
That's not ideal for a team scheduled to start Elvis Merzlikins. Among all goaltenders with at least 10 appearances this season, Merzlikins ranks last in Goals Saved Above Expected (minus-18) and GSAE per start (minus-1.531).
Joonas Korpisalo is a plus in both categories while dealing with the exact same playing circumstances. Thus, it is fair to say Merzlikins is making a bad Blue Jackets team even worse.
Given the level of play we have seen from the Jackets this season, all the injuries they're dealing with, and the fact a strong Capitals team is starting to get healthy, I expect the latter to take care of business with relative ease inside 60 minutes.
Bet: Capitals in regulation (-130)
Penguins (+105) @ Golden Knights (-120)
Things are not looking good for the Pittsburgh Penguins right now. They have struggled defensively for a few weeks and it has really started to catch up to them. The Pens have dropped five consecutive games, giving up at least four goals in four of them.
With Jeff Petry (injury) and Kris Letang (personal) sidelined, their blue line is having a very difficult time holding up. Given as much, the Penguins are more reliant on goaltending than they generally have been in the past. That's why the recent injury to Tristan Jarry is even more troublesome.
Now the Penguins have to try and right the ship against a very good Vegas Golden Knights team.
Despite dealing with a ton of injuries all season long, the Golden Knights lead the Pacific Division and enter play in strong form.
They own a 6-3-1 record over the last 10 games and have controlled better than 59% of the high-danger chances at five-on-five. That slots them third in the NHL.
The Penguins have posted a 45% high-danger chance share over the same period and rank near the bottom of the NHL. Their poor share stems mostly from struggles preventing Grade A chances.
The imminent return of Jack Eichel won't make life any easier for Pittsburgh. He leads the Golden Knights in points per game and average Game Score. He is by far the team's most threatening weapon.
Eichel's return will provide some much needed firepower to the lineup and give Vegas more depth at the center position, which will come in handy going up against the likes of Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin.
I think the Golden Knights are underpriced in this spot at home against a vulnerable Penguins side.
Bet: Golden Knights (-120)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.